Research On Dynamics Modeling, Simulation And Early Warning Of Macro Work Safety System

With the development of economy and society, the tendency of work safety in Chinagradually improves, However, the situation still seems to be grim when compared with thedeveloped countries. Firstly, the nonlinear interaction relationships among accidentsindexes and various economic and social factors and the coordination developmentmechanism among various factors were analyzed. Secondly, two macro work safety systemmodels of nation and coal mine industry were established based on system dynamics (SD).Thirdly, the simulation and early warning according to models were researched. The resultswould have great significance on coordinating the relationships of work safety and theeconomic and social various aspects, developing reasonable macro intervention policy andfinally achieving the concept of safety development.(1) System dynamics theory was introduced to macro work safety forecast and earlywarning field. SD not only builds the research thinking of the coordinative developmentamong macro work safety system, economy and society, but also provides technical pathfor practicing of the macro work safety theories.(2) Rules of macro work safety were studied by adopting system dynamics theory andthe relationships among macro work safety theories, such as the theory of safety rheologyand mutation theory, the theory of the Kuznets Curve of work safety were revealed. Theresult of analysis indicated that methods of System dynamics can be used to explain othertheories.(3) The work safety early warning index systems of region and the coal mine industrywere established. Analyzing the accident and influence factor indicators time seriesdiagrams illustrated the development tendency and the cycle fluctuations law of indicators.Analyzing the scatter diagrams of accident and influence factor indicators illustrated thenonlinear relationships among indicators.(4) Both regional and industrial dynamic models for the harmonious development ofwork safety，economy and society were established. The nonlinear relationships andfeedback mechanism between work safety and socioeconomic influence factors weredeeply analyzed according to block diagram, basic model and causal-result model. Themethods of trend early warning and status warning were proposed. The method of chainindex was used as the calculation method of trend index and the average value and threetimes the standard deviation were used as the warning limits.(5) This paper studied simulation and prediction on the nation and coal mine industrial work safety trends. Firstly, the flow diagram models of work safety system and thesocioeconomic system were built. Secondly, the policy intervention simulation wasanalyzed through the established models. As a result, the prediction rule of the nation andcoal mine industrial work safety was concluded, which was accidents indicators had strongsensitivity to the change of some key influence indicators. Thirdly, the paper used two timeexponential law and averagely decease rate to predict accident statistics indicators in shortterm. Furthermore, according to the prediction results，the aims of Twelfth Five-year Planof our national and coal mine industrial work safety have been achieved ahead of schedule.Finally, the paper analyzed the indexes of early warning, which indicated that in the future1-3years, the national accident indexes will be in the non alarm state, and coal mineaccidents indexes will be in the light alarm state, which means the coal mine accident indexreduced speed is less than the average value of past ten years if the economical and socialfactors and macro safety intervention policy are basically unchanged. What is more,according to the aim of death rate of hundred thousand people of the Twelfth Five-year Planin2020, the paper proposed advices for the improvement of the accidents statisticalindicators.