System Analysis Of Impact Factors In Coal Mine Safety And System Dynamics Simulation Study

Coal mining is a major industry in China, and coal provides two-thirds of our energy sources. With the increase of coal production, major accidents take place frequently, resulting in serious property and life losses. Therefore, the problem of safty becomes more and more significant, and draws worldwide concerns. Safty in production has been the first concern in coalmines. However, frequent accidents in coalmines have made it a tough task in the management of coalmine safty. This paper aims at seeking the root causes of coalmine accidents, analysing the complicated relationship of coalmine safty systems, predicting the level of coal mine safety by applying mathematical models, so as to guide coal mine safety in production, prevent coalmine accidents, improve safety levels in production and protect personal safety of the coalminers.This paper analyzes a large number of typical coalmine accidents, supplemented by information collected through questionnaires on relevant experts and through internet. Based on accident analyzing theory and systematic thinking, combined with the factors related to coalmine accidents, our research applies the interpretive structural model theory and method in building a hierarchical relationship in line with the actual level of coalmine safety factors for our country, to clarify the underlying root causes of coalmine accidents in China.Using system dynamics (SD) theory and method, based on systematic analysis of the impacting factors in coalmine safty, this paper sets up the corresponding simulation model for coal mine safety system, using SD modeling technology with the SD simulation software Vensim_PLE, gets the actual potency of different factors in complex system through simulation of subsystems. What's more, from the economic point of view, taking safe input for instance, this paper simulates coalmine safety level for some coalmines to verify the relationship between safty investment and system security level, and uses comparative cases to analyze and predict the future development trend of the level of coalmine safety, which is conducive to provide a scientific basis for coal mining enterprise management decision on long-term mechanism and countermeasures of preventing accidents in coalmines in China.