Study On The Evolution And Development Of Biomass Utilization Industry System

The development and utilization of biomass resources such as straw resources is ofgreat significance for promoting China’s rural economic development, improving theenvironment, and reducting greenhouse gas emissions. In the initial stage, the industryfaces with a variety of problems, for example, the instability of raw materials supply,immaturity of technology and the ambiguity of sectoral development plan. Based on theanalysis of the utilization status of China’s straw resource, this study uses acomprehensive method combining static analysis optimization and dynamic simulationin research. The total amount, the geographical distribution of Chine’s grain strawresources and the cost and benefit of several straw usages are calculated by staticanalysis to provide the necessary data support for the dynamic simulation. In thedynamic simulation, an agent-based modeling method is employed to build the systemmodel of China’s biomass utilization industry on the basis of complex adaptive systemstheory. A series of simulation experiments are carried out to explore the developmentand evolution pattern of biomass utilization industry system with this model. Morespecifically, the main contribution of this research involves two parts of effort:In the static analysis, this study first calculates the total straw resources anddistribution of China’s provinces, whereby the provinces with relatively abundantresources are identified for the further dynamic study. Secondly, the costs and benefitsof different utilization ways of straw resource are calculated and compared.Consequently, paper making, power generation and ethanol from straw are eventuallyselected as the main research objects. The amounts of potentially feasible resource andthe distributions of appropriate areas are analyzed with regards to the three usages.In the dynamic simulation, the industry system model is built according to thecharacteristics of the biomass utilization, including four agent classes of farmer,enterprise, market and government. Their decision-making behaviors are thenrespectively designed and modeled. The Agents in this model are endowed withproperties of personality attributes, which are incorporated into the construction of thedecision-making behavior. Besides the straw utilization, this model can also be appliedto simulate other biomass utilization system such as sugarcane ethanol industry. The results of scenario simulations of future development and evolution show thatthe economically feasible scale of straw power generation in the regions with richresource should be constrained under15MW in the short term (within5years), and notexceed30MW in the long term (after10years). Without specific development plan,according to different raw material collection and ethanol price conditions, straw powergeneration will occupy a major position in the three types of enterprises after20years.The proportion of centralised utilization will reach50%-90%and the average amountof resources utilization under different conditions varies from198to263milliontons/year.