Study On Hybrid Simulation Model And Policy Regulation Of Construction Waste Management For New Residential Projects In Shenzhen

As the main pillar industry of the national economy,the construction industry has made great contributions to social progress and economic development.At the same time,it has brought many unavoidable problems,such as the rapid growth of construction waste,environmental damage,and resource consumption.In recent years,the issue of construction waste management has attracted worldwide attention.This paper first summarizes the research directions and current status of construction waste management,and finds insufficient that existing in the research on construction waste management,and then puts forward research questions and determines the research content.Then through the theory introduction of complex adaptive system,system dynamics theory and agent-based modeling theory,it is proposed to use complex adaptive system theory to comprehensively consider macro-micro influence,and establish a new idea that construction waste management model based on system dynamics and agent-based modeling.Furthermore,through the analysis and field investigation,system dynamics modeling,agent-based modeling of construction waste management,using Anylogic software development platform,using Java programming technology to build construction waste management model and policy regulation analysis.Finally,taking the new-built residential project started in Shenzhen from January 2017 to December 2018 as examples,the benchmark policy,source sorting,unit pricing policy,supervision and education policy and its combination policy are analyzed from the perspective of waste generation,economy and environment.The effects of construction waste management under the five policies,by comparing the simulation results,leading to the following conclusions:In the hybrid simulation model,the dynamic evolution mechanism of construction waste management is reflected by the attitudes of stakeholders and their interactions with others.The application and dissemination of reduced design,green construction and related technologies have led to changes in indicators such as source reduction rate,illegal dumping rate,and source sorting rate in the construction waste management process.Taking the benchmark policy of construction waste management system in Shenzhen in 2018 as a reference,this paper compares the simulation results of the other four kinds of policy with that of the benchmark policy.It can be seen that the order of the policy implementation effects is: In economy,combination policy?supervision and education policy ? source sorting policy ? unit pricing policy ?benchmark policy.In environment,combination policy? unit pricing policy ?supervision and education policy ? source sorting policy ? benchmark policy.Overall,under the implementation of the combined policy,the economic and environmental benefits can be optimal.Under the condition,the net economic cost is 46.81 million,can decrease by 17% compared with that of the benchmark policy;In terms of environment,the land space occupation decreased by 24%.Moreover,the amount of fertilizer and water pollution can all be reduced by 33%,respectively.Fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 20%.The total environmental net cost can save 20.26 million yuan,up to 34% compared with that of the benchmark policy.In summary,this paper changes the single top-down or bottom-up research ideas in existing research,based on the hybrid simulation experiment method,dynamically regulates the construction waste management policy.In the successive management process,we should increase supervision,improve regulations,organize relevant stakeholders to learn new technologies and new management concepts,enhance the awareness of reduction of designers and constructors,and promoting construction waste generation,environmental and economic impact to more favorable direction.