ABM Based Simulation Research Of Demolition Waste Management

With the rapid development of urbanization in China, a large number of old buildings will be demolished and produce a large amount of waste, which results in the problems of resource waste and environment pollution. This greatly challenges urban sustainable development. With respect to the continual growth of demolition waste, it is urgent to research how to implement effective demolition waste management(DWM). First of all, this paper presents a literature review of the DWM and summarizes the shortcomings in previous research. Then, based on the theory of complexity, this paper analyzes the demolition waste management system(DWMS) from the perspective of complex adaptive system(CAS), introduces the method of agent-based modeling(ABM) and proposes to build DWMS model. Next, an agent-based simulation system for DWM in Shenzhen with Java in Repast Simphony 2.2 was built in accordance with the “10-step” modeling process. Finally, by sampling demolition projects in 2015, the system dynamic evolution principles under different policy scenarios are simulated to explore how interactions between stakeholders and different policies(source reduction, pay-as-you-throw, publicity and education) affect system economic, environmental and social performance. The conclusions and recommendations are presented as following:The attitudes and behaviors of various stakeholders as well as the dynamic interaction between them, especially designers and demolition workers play an important role for the effective DWM. Therefore, some measures could be taken to further improve the attitude and awareness of the various stakeholders and strengthen their exchange and communication e.g. strengthen publicity and education, improve legislations and regulations, reinforce supervision and enforcement, establish incentive mechanism, build integrated information system & service platform, improve recycling market etc.Taking DWM status quo of Shezhen in 2015 as a benchmark, the order for the economic, environmental, social benefits can be obtained by comparing simulation output under different policy scenarios, namely, mixed policy > publicity and education policy > pay-as-you-throw policy > source reduction policy > benchmark policy. Therefore, efforts should be made to promote publicity and education, improve the implementation of pay-as-you-throw policy and refine legislations and regulations so that designers and demolition workers could improve their awareness of source reduction. Thus all stakeholders are motivated to carry out DWM in order to reduce the amount of waste, improve the level of source reduction, reusing and recycling, and increase the economic, environmental and social benefits.In summary, based on the CAS theory and ABM approach, this paper builds a simulation model following the bottom-up process by taking the micro stakeholders as a pinpoint. The effect of policy control can be assessed by the virtual experiment platform which provides a new direction for the future research of DWM.