Research On Risk Assessment And Regulatory Strategy In Port Logistics Of Hazardous Chemicals

On July 16,2010,an explosion occurred in an oil pipeline in Dalian port.On August 12,2015,an explosion occurred in a dangerous goods warehouse in Tianjin port.On September 28,2019,an explosion occurred on a chemical vessel in the port of Weishan,South Korea.On August 4,2020,a big explosion occurred in Beirut port,Lebanon.The consequences of such accidents not only cause environmental damage and economic losses,but also cause great public opinion influence.At the same time.it also exposes the existence of great potential safety hazards and serious regulatory problems in port hazardous chemicals logistics,so it is urgent to carry out effective risk supervision and management.Hazardous chemicals,referred to as hazardous chemicals,are a kind of special chemicals,which are corrosive,radioactive,explosive,flammable,toxic,and easy to cause personal injury and economic environment damage in the process of production,operation,use and waste disposal.With the advancement of China's industrialization and the development of chemical industry,the demand for hazardous chemicals is increasing,which is often used in many industries and fields,and there are many cases of long-distance transportation through ports.In addition,the situation of hazardous chemicals safety control is grim.According to the statistics of the Ministry of communications,about 70%of the hazardous chemicals in China are transported by water.As a key node connecting waterway transportation and land transportation,port occupies a crucial position in China's comprehensive transportation system.To ensure the safety of port logistics activities is the basis for promoting port prosperity and developing marine economy,and is also the key to building "21st century Maritime Silk Road".Therefore,it is necessary to carry out the research on the risk of port hazardous chemicals logistics.Through the identification of key influencing factors and the analysis of the influencing mechanism,it can provide the basis for the risk assessment of port hazardous chemicals logistics,and then realize the effective risk supervision of port hazardous chemicals logistics,which is of great significance to the safe development of port hazardous chemicals logistics.In this paper,a series of in-depth studies are carried out as follows:Firstly,the key risk influencing factors of port hazardous chemicals logistics are identified.Through the analysis of the risk characteristics of port hazardous chemicals logistics,it is found that there are many risk factors.In view of the deficiency of traditional DEMATEL model which relies too much on expert scoring,combined with the advantages of clustering analysis and BP neural network method,the CBP-DEMATEL model for identifying the influencing factors of port hazardous chemicals logistics risk was constructed.and the model simulation was carried out,and the influence degree and classification results of influencing factors of port hazardous chemicals logistics risk were analyzed.This paper selects the historical data of 15 important hazardous chemicals handling ports,such as Ningbo Zhoushan port(hereinafter referred to as Ning Zhou port),classifies the influencing factors of hazardous chemicals logistics risk according to their attributes based on cluster analysis,and obtains the classification results of the same attribute influencing factors of port hazardous chemicals logistics risk It provides a basis for describing the coupling of risk factors in multi-dimensional risk scenarios in the next risk assessment.This paper uses the nonlinear characteristics of BP neural network to solve the direct correlation matrix between the influencing factors of port hazardous chemicals logistics risk.Through calculation,the influence degree of influencing factors on port hazardous chemicals logistics risk can be obtained,and the reason type and result type influence factors can be obtained,which provides the basis for the next step evaluation of port hazardous chemicals logistics risk in the selection of key risk influencing factor indicators.Secondly,the WRT model of multi-dimensional risk assessment of port hazardous chemicals logistics is constructed.Based on the identification of risk factors of port hazardous chemicals logistics,the risk assessment of port hazardous chemicals logistics is carried out.Based on the WSR theory of Wuli,Shili and Renli,and the RFRM theory of risk identification,filtering and ranking,the TSS theory,the WRT model of multi-dimensional risk assessment for port hazardous chemicals logistics is constructed.Based on the WRS methodology,the risk factors are mapped to three aspects:Wuli,Shili and Renli.According to the results of risk factors identification,the risk factors are analyzed and filtered on the basis of RFRM risk filtering theory.Based on the TSS scenario construction theory,the three-dimensional risk scenarios are constructed by coupling the risk influencing factors from three aspects of Wuli,Shili and Renli.This paper selects 15 ports for empirical analysis.Based on the risk assessment WRT model.it calculates the one-dimensional,two-dimensional and three-dimensional risk of hazardous chemicals logistics of 15 ports.Through the combination of point and surface description of the risk of each dimension and the overall risk.we can grasp the risk level of each port from the local to the whole,find the key risk sources,and effectively prevent major risks.At the same time,it provides suggestions for government departments and port hazardous chemicals logistics enterprises to logistics security.Finally,the evolutionary game model between the government and port hazardous chemicals logistics enterprises considering the risk is constructed,and the evolution mechanism of both sides' strategies are studied.Based on the description of the risk level of port hazardous chemicals logistics by using accident incidence and accident consequence severity in risk assessment,an evolutionary game model is further constructed considering the probability of strict government supervision,accident occurrence rate and consequence severity.The replication dynamic equation is used to describe the process and law of the influence of different supervision probability and accident incidence on the strategy selection,and the model simulation is carried out with MATLAB.The research shows that there is a"regulatory paradox" phenomenon in the port hazardous chemicals supervision.Only strengthening the government's strict supervision will make enterprises adopt the facility safety management strategy to cope with the strict supervision in the short term,but in the long run,the enterprises can not consciously choose the facility safety strategy.The strategic choice of port hazardous chemicals logistics enterprises has nothing to do with its operating income,but has something to do with the accident rate.In the face of low risk,no matter whether the government supervision is strict or not,enterprises choose to ignore the risk;in the face of high risk,if the government does not take strict supervision,enterprises will still consciously choose the facility safety strategy to operate legally.Finally,through the conclusion of simulation analysis,this paper provides suggestions for the design of risk supervision mechanism of port hazardous chemicals logistics,and promotes the safety development of port hazardous chemicals logistics.