Demand Forecast Of Port Hazardous Chemicals Logistics Based On Hinterland Division

At present,70%of China's hazardous chemicals transport through port waterways,and the forecast of port hazardous chemicals logistics needs is an important basis for port safety production and supervision.In addition to the general factors of logistics demand,the impact of space on logistics demand shouldn't be ignored,which increases the difficulty of port demand forecasting of dangerous chemicals in ports.The main problems in the forecast of port hazardous chemicals logistics demand are the scientific division of the hinterland and how to accurately predict the demand in the case of spatial factors.Although traditional linear prediction and prediction of artificial intelligence methods are widely used,most studies ignore the influence of the important element of“space”on the logistics demand of port hazardous chemicals.Based on the division of the hinterland,this paper conducts an empirical study on the demand for hazardous chemicals logistics in Dalian Port.Firstly,we introduces the significance and value of studying the logistics demand of dangerous chemicals in ports.Through extensive reading of the literature,the domestic and international research status of related research is sorted out,and then the research methods of this paper are put forward.Secondly,introduce the definition of hazardous chemicals industry,management status and transportation mode;the Huff model and spatial economic theory to be used in this paper are introduced from the background and theoretical basis,core concepts,framework and application.The demand forecast for hazardous chemicals in ports is elaborated from its definition and common forecasting methods.Then through the analysis of the factors affecting the logistics demand of port hazardous chemicals,on the basic of factor analysis,a two-step approach is developed to forecast.The first step is to improve the traditional Huff model to make it conform to the port hinterland division research.The second step is to predict the logistics demand of port hazardous chemicals according to the core-edge model in the space economic theory based on the scientific division of the port hinterland.Model construction.Finally,using the existing data to measure the comprehensive strength of the cities in the Northeast,the comprehensive strength of the port,the port and regional relevance and the port attraction,so as to scientifically divide the port hinterland.On the basic of the divided hinterland,the logistics demand of dangerous chemicals in Dalian Port 2007-2016 was measured by statistics on the production and consumption of crude oil,petroleum products and natural gas in 21 hinterland cities of Dalian Port in 2007-2016.To compare with the actual data of Dalian Port,it verified the accuracy of using space economic theory to predict the demand of port hazardous chemicals logistics,and based on this,predicted the demand for hazardous chemicals logistics of Dalian Port in 2020.Based on the prediction results,we propose several proposals for the development of port construction in Dalian Port,which has certain guidance and significance for the planning and construction of Dalian Port.We construct a model and empirically analyze the demand for port hazardous logistics in Dalian Port,which is simple and intuitive,and the results are accurate.In theory,it enriches the method of port demand forecasting of hazardous chemicals in ports;in practice,the paper puts forward suggestions for the development of port construction in Dalian port based on the prediction results,and has certain guidance and display significance for the port planning and construction of Dalian Port.