Development And Application Study On Moded Base Of Landslide Prediction And Foreeast Based On GIS

Slope which caused great damage is a very serious disaster . Landslide predicting and forcasting is one of effect measures to lessen and prevent calamity . Hitherto , it is not formed a systemic , finishal and mature theory method to predict landslides .Considering the limits of all predicting models , we select some kinds of methods form predecessor's study such as Grey-movement forecasting modes of uniformly factal, Exponent smoothing prediction Verhulst model forecasting,Verhulst inverse-function forecasting, Trend prediction, Growing model prediction and so on to build a model base . It is a software of landslide prediction which based on GIS and developed by VB6.0 . By this software system , we can accurately decide the stability and destructive time of landslide form different aspect or different phase or different forecast parameters . Though various models and different methods of treating monitoring datas, we can improve our predicting effect and accuracy. Finally, we predict the Lianziya by this software system and draw a well conclusion .