Study On Integrated Method Of Seismic Disaster Prediction And Decision Support System

Seismic disaster is a kind of serious natural disaster which has always had human afflicted and cannot be exactly forecasted. It has brought us so huge catastrophe that people have to pay great attention to the disaster reduction. During the recent decades, more and more new techniques, such as Geography Information System (GIS), Decision Support System and Intelligent Spatial Decision Support System, put into the work as the development of science and technology.GIS has been used in the seismic disaster prediction and decision support since 1990's. The course includes three phases: primary stage, developing stage and decision support stage. As the progress of technology and the requirement of seismic disaster reduction, the intelligence of system must be improved, and Intelligent Spatial Decision Support System became the new aim.ISDSS integrates DSS and artificial intelligence. It can accomplish the semi-structure and non-structure problem. Nowadays, ISDSS includes three types: DSS + Knowledge Base + Text Base; DSS + Question Answering Cell; LPK. We can infer that the core of ISDSS is the knowledge base and model base.The knowledge and the model are the keys which the system used to solve the problem. The integration of knowledge and model in ISDSS has three aspects. The first is that the Model-Selection based knowledge. The second is the explanation of result of model. The last is that the model comes into being by knowledge. The research of the integrating method of knowledge and model is the key of the research of ISDSS. At present, there are three main integrated methods: the method based rule; the Rule-Base method; the method based Intelligent-Object. Aiming at the seismic disaster evaluation and decision support, the paper brings forward the concept of Intelligent Support Component (ISC), which can deal with knowledge, selecting model, explaining result of model. ISDSS integrate the knowledge and model by ISC.The paper brings forward the system's structure. The system developed by the COM technique- ISC. The system adopts C/S three-layer method. It includes Client-Layer, Component-Layer and Server-Layer. The Component-Layer is composed of ISC base.Seismic disaster prediction and decision support system in YongAn proved that the technique is reasonable which the paper brings forward. The functions of the system include data management, cartography, disaster pre-evaluation, decision support etc. The precision of prediction achieves the user's requirement. The system meets the need of Disaster-Prediction and Decision-Support.