Application On Monte Carlo Method In The Typical Geothermal Assessment In China

Geothermal resource is the energy which is in the depth of 5,000 meters below the surface of the earth's crust, at 15℃or more, and in favor of economic development and utilization. The scientific geothermal assessment has the important significance for local geothermal planning and rational utilization. In this paper, two types of typical geothermal resources are carried out a detailed calculation by Monte Carlo method. These works provide important reference for the development and utilization of geothermal resources in the areas.In this thesis, we choose Monte Carlo as the method in this geothermal assessment on the basis of analysis and research of existing methods. Monte Carlo method is defined as a kind of method in quite terms that utilizes random data to perform the simulation. It can estimate the minimum, most likely, the maximum value for the uncertainty parameter in the volume method. The most likely results and the scope of the outcome expressed in terms of probability can be got. These could improve the credibility of the results in the evaluation. Geothermal resources in general can be divided into conduction systems in the sedimentary basins and convection systems in mountains. After analyzing these two types of geothermal resources, we choose the Fuzhou geothermal field in Fuzhou and geothermal in Gu'an as the typical areas. Among them, Fuzhou geothermal field in Fuzhou belongs to the convection type in the mountain, and geothermal resources in Gu'an belongs to the conduction systems in sedimentary basins. In the process of the geothermal resource evaluation, we calculated the stored heat and accessible resource base in the typical areas by the Monte Carlo method. Then, we compared the calculated results and the results in the reports, and found that they are little difference. So we can think that the methods employed are reasonable. Finally, according to the latest definition of geothermal resources, we re-calculated the stored heat and accessible resource base, and provided the newest data for the local geothermal development and utilization. When we carried out the calculation by Monte Carlo method, it will require more information. Therefore, this is a method that can be applied to the areas where has been proceed a higher degree of the work.