Study On The Environmental Economic Carrying Capacity In Shandong Province

Reasonability of regional economic scale lies on if the economic environmental result is restricted in environmental capacity, so the environmental capacity has become the main limiting factor affecting the development of regional economy. In this paper, the most reasonable scale was sought for through environmental capacity that denotes the healthiness of environmental system in order to perfect the study on eco-environment carrying capacity and revise the subjectivity of weight of affecting factors. The result was tried as a new criterion evaluating the regional sustainable development. Now, there are seldom studies on material eco-environment carrying capacity, though many research results were obtained. This study can be of significance not only to eco-environment theory but also to economic development practice.Analysis model on eco-environment carrying capacity was set up based on the concept of broad social welfare using methods of mathematics for economists, and asked for the result using the dynamic programming.In this paper, the development and the frame and methods of basic research on eco-environment carrying capacity were summarized in the first chapter. Then, the sustainable development theory and broad social welfare theory were introduced in the second chapter. Next, the Analysis model on eco-environment carrying capacity was set up, and asked for the result using the dynamic programming the third chapter. The environmental condition all over the Shandong province was analyzed and the air and water environmental capacity were measured. Finally, Shandong province was selected as a case to study using the data from 1996 to 2005 by the analysis model on eco-environment carrying capacity.The result showed that the economic scale in Shandong approached the reasonable scale taking SO₂ and COD as the criterions from 1996 to 2005, and economic development is approaching to correspond with environment. There are a little spare in air environmental capacity of SO₂, and the water environmental capacity of COD was lack a little. The partiality index trend of usual goods and environmental goods not only had no notable change but annual fluctuation was observed since 1996. Also, the capacity of pollution treatment and the technology index of usual economic goods were decreased.Although the result seems optimistic, due to the measure based on the environment management standard, the facts of Shandong environment was severe. The environment deterioration in Shandong will last a term, if the environment partiality and the technology index of usual economic goods change basically.