Quantitative Analysis And Forecasting Of Ecological Sustainable Development Of Guangzhou Based On Ecological Footprint Model

City sustainable development must be based on ecological sustainable development. Assessment of city ecological sustainable development is becoming a research hotspot. Ecological Footprint Model is used frequently in quantitative analysis and assessment of city sustainable development. By comparing the area of ecological productive land a city can provide with the theoretic land area needed to produce the recorded energy and resource consumption of the city, we can decide quantitatively whether the producing and consuming activities are beyond the carrying capacity of local ecological system.Guangzhou has obtained a splendid success in economic development. However, due to the sudden conglomeration of population and economic activities, lots of ecological land is being taken by the expanding city, therefore the structure and function of the city ecosystem has undergone big change. Because we have many things unknown, such as how the city ecosystem of Guangzhou is, how the development quality is, where the problem is and so on, we cannot take any measure useful and applicable.In this paper, based on the theory of city ecological sustainable development, ecological footprint demand of Guangzhou, ecological footprint supply and ecological deficit/surplus are calculated using Ecological Footprint Model in order to assess the status of ecological sustainable development of Guangzhou and to analyze the space distribution of ecological pressure and the economy benefit of ecological footprint. Ecological footprint characteristics of Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai are compared. To find out the status of ecological sustainable development of Guangzhou for the following 5 years, the dynamic processes of ecological sustainable development in latest 15 years are analyzed and the trends of ecological footprint and GDP footprint of Guangzhou from 2006 to 2010 are forecasted. In the end, measures are proposed to optimize the structure of urban ecosystem in order to help Guangzhou develop in an ecological sustainable way. The result indicates that total ecological footprint of Guangzhou in 2005 is 43833286.049437 hm~2, average ecological footprint 4.615585 hm~2/cap, while average ecological deficit 4.390879 hm~2/cap. It is found that the ecological sustainable development status of Guangzhou is worse than that of Beijing, but better than that of Shanghai. All kinds of ecological productive land, except the built-up area, have ecological deficit, and the land of largest deficit is for fossil fuel industry. Ecological pressure is unevenly distributed in space: heaviest in Yuexiu district and lightest in Nansha district. The GDP footprint is 0.850434 hm~2 for every 10000 yuan, indicating that the resource utilizing efficiency of Guangzhou is lower than that of Beijing but higher than that of Shanghai. From 2006 to 2010, the average ecological footprint of Guangzhou will increase quickly and ecological sustainable development is unreachable, while the GDP footprint will decrease and the resource utilizing efficiency will improve gradually. In order to develop in an ecological sustainable way, Guangzhou should take all useful and applicable measures urgently, including controlling the population scale, constructing a saving society, optimizing industry structure, improving the utilizing efficiency of resources and energy, using and protecting land reasonably, boosting the ecological carrying capacity, balancing the space distribution of ecological pressure, etc.