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Practical Study On System Dynamical Simulated Model Of Planning For Ecological Country Construction Of Yanlin County

Posted on:2009-12-18Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:R XunFull Text:PDF
GTID:2121360272495578Subject:Ecology
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As a developing country in the world, China is facing for the contradiction among the development demand, limited resource support and delicate ecological environment.When extracting experience and mistakes from other countries, China is making effort to track the road of sustainable development with Chinese peculiarity.We stick to walk to the road of developmental production, affluent life and benign ecology.At the year of 1993, China has worked out《21 centrury agenda of China》and the integral strategy of way of sustainable development has been definetely put forward. Ecological demonstrated area, ecological county, ecological city and ecological province are the effective carrier and concrete way to carry out strategy of sustainable developmen and districts of putting sustainable development into practice. Since from 1996,China has begun to construct the ecological demonstrated area. Practice testified that the ecological demonstrated area is a comparatively successful approach for China to put into effect sustainable development. Ecological demonstrated area is initial stages of ecological county and ecological county is sublimation of ecological demonstrated area.The National Department of Environmental Protection has begun to constructe ecological county from the year of 2003. Its total aim is push on social ecnomy and ecological environment to benign circulation and sustainable development.Ecological county planning is important precondition and basis work of ecological county construction and its quality would clearly affecte the impact of construction. In order to make the planning to be more realistic, the model of system dynamics has been constructed to simulate the developmental process of social economy and ecological environment.According to the datum and data of social economy and environmental actuality of Yanling county from 2000-2006, constructe SD model of "society-economy-environment"comoposite system. 11 variable has been choosed and the whole system of Yanling county has been devided into 6 subsystem: population,agriculture,industry, tertiary industry, resource and environment protection.Every subsystem is contacted by the inport and output of substance and message. In the language of Vensim, according to the datum and data of social economy and environmental actuality of Yanling county from 1987-2005, check up the retrospect quality of SD model. The result shows that the comparative error between the SD simulating data and the actual data is always under 20%. In the sensitivity checking, 20 parameters and 20 variable are choosed and the result indicates that expect 6 parameters, the model is not sensitive to the change of other parameters. So we can say that the SD model is strong enough to analyse correlation of "society-economy-environment"comoposite system in Yanling county.According to the datum and data of social economy and environmental actuality of Yanling county, five development methods are ready to be choosed, they are: method of agriculture developing first, method of industry developing first, method of tertiary industry developing first, method of social developing first, and the method of ecological environment developing first. The incipient number of all the developing methods have been taken into the model of YLSEEDM (2006-2020), then the nunber of indexs of ecological county assessing have been run out and the degree of sustainable development have been worked out. The result shows that the degree of sustainable development is highest under the developing method of ecological environment first and the whole system is steady, healthy and harnonious.So this developing method would be choosed. After the developing method has been decided to be the method of ecological environment developing first as the method of national ecological county constructing planning and the parameters number of the YLSEEDM (2006-2020) under the original developing method have been changed into the parameters number under the method of ecological environment developing first, the model of YLSEEDM(2006-2020)I has been constructed. The planning aim number of all the indexs has been decided by the running result of YLSEEDM (2006-2020) I. According to the disparity between the planng aim number and the actuality number, 6 indexs which are hard to get to have been picked out, they are: pure water consumption per unit industy increasing, percentage of disposing of living affluent, percentage of excrement systhetical using of large farm, fertilizing intensity, proportion between environment investment and GDP and percentage of population increasing. Controlling extension and measure of related parameters would be decided by these 6 indexs and bring forward decision-making foundation for planning of national ecological county construction.
Keywords/Search Tags:ecological county, degree of sustainable development, system dynamics, SD model, assessing index
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