| As an important economic development region in northern China, Shandong province also faces the environmental pollution and ecological damage issues along with the achievement in coastal city agglomeration, especially the proposal of "Blue economical regions of Shandong Peninsula", which challenges us besides the great opportunity. We have to re-examine the relationship between the social economic development and ecological environment under the developing model currently. It has become the focus of that how to balance the scarce resources and unlimited developments and achieve the sustainable development of Shandong coastal city agglomeration. The essay combines the ecological footprint theory and the theory of energy, applies them into the quantitative research of the relationship between the ecological environment and social economy in Shandong coastal city agglomeration, finds the factors that have negative influences on the healthy development of society-ecology system by analyzing, offers the suggestions to improve them combining the actual situation of ecological and economical development in Shandong coastal city agglomeration, thus, provides scientific guide for the development in harmony between the ecology and economy of the region.The essay applies the improved ecological footprint analysis based on the energy value theory, establishes the "energy-ecological footprint" model of Shandong coastal city agglomeration for the first time. makes quantitative researches on the ecological footprint, ecological capacity and ecological deficit from 1993-2007 of Shandong Coastal city agglomeration, submits the overall appraisal of the development of the society-ecology system of the researched region by choosing six important indexes such as million GDP ecological footprint, ecological footprint diversity index, per capita ecological cooperation index, ecological capacity imperfection degree index, ecological pressure index and eco-economical system developing ability which can better reflect the situation of the development of the society-ecology system. In order to better understand the situation of the sustainable development of the researched region, the essay takes the advantage of grey system theory to build the ecological footprint predicting model and the ecological capacity predicting model of Shandong coastal city agglomeration separately, thus, estimates the ecological footprint, the ecological capacity and the ecological deficit of the region from 2008 to 2015. It's showed that:1. During 1993-2007, Shandong coastal city agglomeration faces serious ecological deficit and also has an obvious increase. In 2007, the region confronts with huge ecological pressure based on the figure 3.77×108hm2. The reason is that the ecological footprint of the region increases quickly. The figure increases from 13.33×107hm2 in 1993 to 40.39×107hm2 in 2007, the average annual variable rate is 8.1%, and the trend is almost in straight up state. However, the ecology capacity is always in the slow fluctuation state, falling roughly in alternate states of annual growth, the average annual variable rate is 2.9%.2. During 1993-2007, the proportion of each component of the ecological footprint of the researched region according to their descending order is:productive land footprint, fossil energy land footprint, water area footprint structural land footprint, grassland footprint and woodland footprint. Among them, fossil energy land, water area and structural land increase so fast in recent years that the imbalance between supply and demand of the researched region has deteriorated.3. During 1993-2007, there's no obvious change in the per capita ecological capacity, the peak value reaches 0.81hm2 per capita in 2007 and the low value is 0.66hm2 per capita in 2000. the 15 years average of the per capita ecological capacity is 0.72 per capita.The per capita ecological footprint increases constantly, the figure increases from 4.30hm2 per capita to 12.02hm2 per capita, the rate of increase is 179.53%.The per capita ecological deficit changes as follow three phases:during 1993-1996, the figure increases sharply, from 3.55hm2 per capita to 5.75hm2 per capita; during 1997-1998, the per capita ecological deficit declines continually, the figure declines to 0.27hm2 per capita in 1998; during 1999-2007, the figure increases persistently, in 2007 the figure is 11.21 hm2 per capita which is 2.2 times as 1993. 4. During 1993-2007, productive land footprint,water area and fossil energy land make the most contribution on the composing of the per capita ecological footprint of the Shandong coastal city agglomeration, structural land is in the next place, the proportion of grassland footprint and woodland is least. The stress human activity brought to ecological resource mostly roots in the crop planting,fishing and the demand of fossil energy product in the researched region.5. During 1993-2007, the resource utilizing rate of the Shandong coastal city agglomeration improves year after year,the use of different kinds of land has been switched over for the better of balance, but the quickly development of the local economic brings more stress on nature resource and environment, the development relation between the society economy and the nature zoology should be corresponded in the future.6. From 2008 to 2015, the researched region's ecological footprint will increase more visibly than the ecological capacity and it will make the ecological deficit increase constantly. The per capita ecological deficit will reach 19.19×hm2/per. The fossil energy land, water area and structural land will increase faster and the proportion of the components of the ecological footprint will have a great change in the few years, the fossil energy land footprint will become the biggest component which affects the ecological footprint instead of the productive land footprint.Finally, based on the research and combined with the actual situation, the essay analyzes the negative factors of the regional sustainable development and provides suggestions to control ecological deficit and stimulate the harmonious development of ecology and economy in Shandong Coastal city agglomeration.
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