The Research Of The Application Of Grey System-theory In Source Water Quality's Predict And Estimate

The quality of water source in cities is direct relative to the health of citizens, the development of economy, and the stability of society. We can know the variation status of the water by predicting the source water quality, and evaluate the security degree of the water in the source region. We should try to analyze the pollution trend of the source water, and promote some suitable protective measures. Then we can choose some reasonable process to deal the wave of the water quality in operating management. It is very valuable in insure people's life, promoting local economy and enhance the development of the society.Nowadays the major predicting modes are Mainly includes the mechanism model and the non-mechanism model. Each method and model has its advantages and disadvantages. This thesis tried using Grey System-Theory to predict water quality and further the Markov model was used to optimize results. This method can combine the engineering case to analyze and predict the index of the water quality, thus from results can be informed the source water quality change trend and the prediction of future water quality data. This thoery can help the relevant authority to take right solutions. Grey Markov SC GM (1, 1) model has both advantages of the Grey SC GM (1, 1) Model and the Markov chain. This method can make full use of the information comes from the regional data, and can also overcome random volatility larger data to predict the influence of accuracy listed. It is adapted to the water quality prediction. The results show that the prediction model has practicability.The main content of the water evaluation is to evaluate the water pollution degree, partition its pollution levels, and determine its main pollutants. The goal of the water evaluation is to point out the water pollution levels accurately, to grasp the main pollutants to the influence of water level and future development trend, and to provide the principle and basis for water resources protection and comprehensive application. This essay will try to apply the Grey System-Theory to the water evaluation area. Through the gray clustering evaluation methods to evaluate the quality of water quality of water quality index level and source water quality influence degree and future development trend.This essay use examples to prove that the Grey System Theory has preferable result in predicting and evaluating the security insurance level of the source water quality, and the tendency of the pollution. According to the predicting and evaluating results, we can promote corresponding protecting measures, and choose reasonable managing technology in planning and design. In the operation and management we can take effective measures according to the wave of the water quality. With this theory we can improve the safety of drinking water, prevent diseases and improve people's health level, to ensure social stability, social economic environment for sustainable development provides technical support.