Noninfectious Chronic Disease Prediction And Risk Factors Index Evaluation Based On Grey System Theory

Objective:Grey system model GM(1,1)fitting forecast and improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(AHP)were conducted in this study to analyze the chronic non-communicable diseases epidemiology of adult residents in Xinjiang province in 2014.The aim is to provide strategy for the government to perfect health intervention through providing a full baseline data for chronic non-communicable diseases prevention and control and improving cohort study.Methods:Using Large epidemiological field survey method,combining with evidence-based medical literature retrieval method,using the theory of grey system for chronic noncommunicable diseases prevalence data fit make predictions;At the same time,the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to construct a risk factor for chronic noncommunicable diseases key index system,using three indicators to establish matrix,the reference weight,screening the assignment again.Results:1)In view of the main three types of chronic non-communicable diseases(hypertension,diabetes,malignant tumors)according to the distribution of demographic characteristics,hypertension prevalence rate(P=0.291>0.05),There is no siginificant difference between different genders in hypertension groups.Diabetes prevalence situation indicate that there is significant difference between different genders,the p value is 0.000<0.05 and 0.000<0.05 specifically.Chronic disease prevalence between different age groups(P=0.000<0.05),there is significant difference;High blood pressure,diabetes prevalence between different living areas have differences.Malignant tumors(P=0.000<0.05),there are differences between different gender have statistically significant;Chronic disease prevalence between different age groups(P=0.000<0.05),High blood pressure,diabetes prevalence between different living areas have differences,there is statistically significant.Malignant tumors,according to the comparison between(P=0.000<0.05),indicating that different malignant tumour of the area between the difference was statistically significant.2)According to the different gender,age,area residents,residents of hypertension prevalence rate of 19.6%as a whole.Either from the perspective of gender or region aged 60 and above accounted for 54.6%of the elderly.Residents of hypertension awareness overall was 49.8%.The people between the age of 45 to 59 awareness best;Residents of hypertension treatment rates overall was 38.4%.Among people over 60 years old and with other age population compared to the overall treatment of slightly better;Residents overall is 11.6%,high blood pressure control rates reflect between 45 to 59 years old crowd control performed slightly better than other age groups;Age stages according to the population,urban and rural residents over 35 health hypertension patients was 34.2%,in between 45 to 59 people self health management performance is slightly better.Age stages,the urban and rural residents over 35 patients with high blood pressure specification 13.6%,reflected in the 45-people between the age of 59 specification management performance is relatively better.Residents diabetes prevalence overall is 11.8%,the highest prevalence in the elderly aged 60 and above;Overall 48%residents awareness of diabetes,of which 45 to 59 people performed slightly better;Overall 43%residents of diabetes treatment,of which 45 to 59 people performed slightly better;Residents of diabetes control overall was 30.6%,especially with people aged 60 and above did slightly better;Age stages according to the population,urban and rural residents over 35 diabetics health was 26%,among them with 45 to 59 people performed slightly better;Diabetes specification was 10.3%,of which 18 to 44 people did slightly better.3)There is a statistically significant difference among gender,region age and smoking prequency.The more men than women smoking;Those aged between 18 to 44 people smoking,most urban areas smoking rates higher than rural areas.Now residents daily smoking rates is 18.3%;Daily average daily smokers start smoking age was 19.1 years;Now the smoker with average daily smoking quantity is 12.1;Now the smokers to quit smoking rate was 63.2%;Different gender,region,there are differences between the age groups of people drinking frequency,with statistical significance.The number of people aged 45 to 59 drinking,most urban areas drinking number higher than rural areas.Overweight,obesity is no differences between different gender,not statistically significant;In different areas,there are differences between the age groups of people are overweight,obesity frequency,statistically significant,the town of overweight and obesity is more than the country;People aged 45 to 59 largest number of overweight and obesity.4)Different gender,age,area per capita of fruits and vegetables daily intake of 414.6 grams,inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables proportion accounted for 55.1%,59.7%higher in rural residents inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables,for urban residents is 49.7%;Red meat intake per capita 102.2 grams per day,a day too much red meat intake,38.1%to 34.7%of the rural and urban residents was 42.0%.Urban households per capita daily cooking oil intake too much proportion is 86.3%,as high as 92.8%in the countryside.Households per capita daily salt intake with an average of 9.2 grams,rural 11.4 grams,far above the level of the town of 6.5 g;Household cooking oil intake of 53.6 grams per day,per capita rural is still above the level of the town.Different gender,age,area residents exercise at a rate of 8.8%,residents never exercise rate is as high as 87.0%,of which 18 to 44 stage people never exercise rate were higher than other age stage;Total average weekly activity time<150 minutes,21.3%is still highest percentage in the group people aged 18 to 44.;The average daily total static behavior time more than 4 hours.5)During 1993-2013,the city of chronic disease prevalence rate is higher than the countryside.Results from the analysis of variance(P=0.014),significant difference was found in chronic disease prevalence rate between urban and rural areas,urban chronic disease prevalence rate is significantly higher than the countryside.From 1993 to 2013,female prevalence is higher than male,(P=0.476),but the results of variance analysis shows that chronic disease prevalence there is no statistical significance differences between different gender.In comparison,the gender differences in hypertension and diabetic population in Xinjiang have statistical significance,no statistically significant gender differences in dyslipidemia phenomenon,reasons involve more complex,the regional characteristic is more obvious.Forecast 2018 chronic disease prevalence fitting value of 40.99%,is likely to be 55.59%in 2023,the situation is more serious.For urban and rural areas and gender analysis,fitting prediction as follows,predicts that by 2018.The chronic disease prevalence is consistent in urban area and rural area.but as the time after pushing,The prevalence of 2023 in rural area is out of expected city level,even in 2028 is expected to close to the double levels of the city;20 years from 1992 to 1992,the prevalence rate from 12.6%to 25.06%,the witting rate increased from 26.30%to 26.30%,the treatment with 26.30%increased to 34.50%,gradually increase control rates are 2.80%to 9.38%;Based on grey system theory,the fitting of the predicted data is expected to reach 28.44%by 2017 and witting rate was 48.83%,still have fallen below the 50%target,treatment rates at 41.79%,but control 11.90%,still not ideal,the grim situation of prevention and control;Is expected in 2020,the national diabetes prevalence rate will reach 17.54%,and rise to 25.72%in 2026,growing at a staggering rate.From 1990 to 2015 of the malignant tumor mortality and cause of death data,using GM(1,1)model in fitting data to predict,and finally predicts 2030 rural mortality will beyond the city,male cancer-related mortality was significantly higher than female.6)Using the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(AHP)screening indicators including demographic characteristics,family history,history of exposure,life style,the current physical condition,mental psychological factors;Demographic characteristics include secondary indicators mainly include age,gender,nationality,educational background and marital status;Family history of secondary indicators include cardiovascular disease,metabolic disease and tumor;Exposure of the secondary indicators include environmental exposure and occupational exposure;Lifestyle secondary indexes including diet,smoking,alcohol consumption,sports.blood sugar;Mental psychological factors of secondary indexes including mental tension,character flaws and psychological pressure.Selection for the six dimensions of the primary index of indicators,the establishment of the membership degree matrix is set up according to the influence degree of priority level 5 evaluation,in reality survey can be according to the priority weights of every index considering how people sick probability,whether physiological indexes or behavior,or environmental factors,has early warning function to a certain extent,if timely intervention,and can track evaluation.Conclusion:1)Multi-sectoral cooperation,will be included in all health policy;The establishment of a chronic disease prevention and control of persistent security to meet the reasonable operation of each medical institutions.Evidence-based decisions,pay attention to the cost effective analysis;To strengthen the construction of monitoring team,accumulate longitudinal cohort study of large sample data 2)Implementation of early detection treated early,reduce the high risk of population;Individualized health interventions;To carry out the hierarchical diagnosis system;Improve the quality of medical services;Promote medical together,realize the whole process of health management;To improve security,and lightens the burden of the masses go to a doctor;Control of risk factors,create a healthy supportive environment;As a whole social resources,innovative development of health services;Strengthen the monitoring and evaluation of science and technology support,promotion and innovation;3)Different statistical modeling methods have their advantages and disadvantages,in the prediction of development trend,the prevalence of chronic disease should be according to the actual situation of the research data,considering the characteristics of each method,through long repair short,grey system theory has good precision,can try to simulate model based on the relevant data of chronic diseases in xinjiang.4)Different risk factors for chronic diseases spectrum; Smoking,drinking alcohol,dyslipidemia,obesity,inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables,sleep problems,lack of physical exercise is a common chronic disease of common risk factors;The same risk factors for different size of chronic diseases and their damage.improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process can be utilized in this study to adjust matrix and weight.