The Evacuation Planning Research For The Millennium Eruption In Tianchi Volcano, Changbai Mountains

The monitoring reports of Tianchi Volcano in Changbai Mountains had shown that the volcanic tectonic activities were gradually enhanced with the increase of the risk of eruption since 2002. Once the volcano erupts,the lava flows, debris flows, ash, mudslides and the flood disasters triggered by collapsing of Tianchi Lake will threatens the life safety of the residents in disaster regionalization seriously. For that reason, based on the project of "The Special Disaster Prevention Planning of Tianchi Volcano in Changbai Mountains", the thesis focuses on the evacuation planning for the millennium eruption in Tianchi Volcano which is divided into three aspects:the location of evacuation shelters; the optimal evacuation route design and the personnel allocation of the victims. The research aims to provide technical guidance for the safe and orderly evacuation and transfer of the victims before the volcanic eruption,as well as ensure the the safety of disaster victims during the the volcanic eruption.In this paper, research idea is as follows:Firstly, formulate the location requirements of volcanic evacuation based on the foreign volcanic evacuation planning methods and prevention and mitigation technologies of natural disasters in our country, establish the alternative database for the evacuation shelters by establishing spatial database of the four cities around Tianchi Volcano and analyzing the regionalization of millennium eruption volcanic in Tianchi Volcano. Secondly, introduce the equivalent length as evacuation distance, then analyse the optimal evacuation routes between the towns affected by the eruption and the evacuation shelters by utilizing the network analyst of ArcGIS. The results take the road network capacity into consideration that has certain reliability. Again, on the basis of the organized evacuation model, build an evacuation model according to the characteristics of volcanic disasters, and turn the model into a transportation problem. To ensure convenient solutions and accurate results, LINGO is the best software to solve the model whose solutions take into account the the overall evacuation optimization. Finally, adjust the evacuation plan appropriately in view of the victims; psychological demands, strive to evacuate the people in the same region to the nearest shelters aiming to guarantee convenient and confortable life.From the general perspective of evacuation planning for Tianchi Volcano disasters in Changbai Mountains, the thesis puts forward a set of theories and methods for the prevention and evacuation of volcanic disasters that has certain operability and practical importance. The methods proposed in the process of research such as simplifying evacuation shelters, partitioning disasters regionalization, using equivalent length, and evacuating the village as a whole apply well to other volcanic disasters’evacuation planning directly or by being modified.