System Dynamics Analysis Of The Real Estate Price Fluctuations

In recent years, China’s real estate industry is faced with severe situation and challenges, the fluctuation of real estate price has been a hot topic. Many scholars in this field have made some achievements, by the way of qualitative and quantitative analysis. However, in the process of economic development, there are some problems in the real estate market, such as development overheated, supply and demand imbalance, or prices fluctuate.Although the government has published a series of regulation and control policy,the real estate market can not reach the expected goal. It is imperative to analyze the real estate price fluctuation scientifically, find out the main factors influencing the real estate price fluctuations to reasonable predict prices and balance of supply demand relationship, then puts forward some valuable policy.This paper, using system dynamics method, analyzes the main factors influencing the real estate price fluctuation, and the real estate market supply and demand, deep analysis of the real estate price fluctuations, finally make suggestions of suppression real estate price fluctuations. The research includes the following three parts:(1) Analysis the factors of real estate price fluctuation. The article qualitative analysis the real estate price fluctuations for three aspects: macro economic, policy,supply and demand factors. Then using the Grey correlation analysis method divide the six main factors into three types, there are supply, demand and macroeconomic factors. To build the corresponding indicator, analyze the correlation between real estate prices and the main influence factors by collecting relevant data, take the results of correlation analysis. This can better quantitative analysis of the real estate price fluctuation influenced by various factors.(2) System dynamics analysis of the real estate price fluctuations. This part based on the analysis of the main factors influencing the real estate price fluctuations,building the system dynamics model of residential property prices, and analysis ShanXi Province situation as an example. Simulation the housing prices of ShanXi Province by using the system dynamics software, then analysis the real estate market with relate policy.(3) Policy Suggestions. Based on the above two parts on the real estate price fluctuations of quantitative analysis, finally put the foothold on the real estate marketsupply and demand relationship, then put forward the related policy, to stabilize real estate prices and provide theoretical support for the healthy development of the real estate market.The research results of this paper has certain practical value for solved for the real estate market supply and demand imbalance, house prices rising too fast, it can be provides new thinking and strong theoretical support in this filed. Even though has actively promote significance in the steady development of real estate market.