Research Of The Relationship Of Decoupling Between Social Economic Development And Carbon Emissions In Henan Province

Climate change is the biggest challenge and threat of human face in the21st century, and,is the major constraints of the economic and social development. In this paper, analyzed the status quo of economic, energy, carbon emissions, carbon emissions intensity in He’nan Province; Theoretical analysis method, correlation analysis method, and grange causality analysis method were used to choose and determine the carbon emissions driving indicators from the14primary indicators, gained6representative indicators, that is GDP per capita, the coefficient of ESD, the coefficient of ECSD, the urbanization rate, energy intensity, the total population;Analyzed carbon emissions and the carbon intensity of driving factors in He’nan province, gained the closest indicator are urbanization rate and energy intensity, and the correlation coefficient is0.898and0.997respectively. Builded decoupling indicator, analyzed the degree of decoupling between economic development and carbon emissions in he’nan province from1978to2010, the results show that in1979,1982,1989is strong decoupling,1998,2003is expansive coupling, rest of the year is weak decoupling in he’nan province. The decoupling index were not significantly declining trend, but there are twists and turns downward trend. Indicated that he’nan province were taking efforts to improve the relationship between economic development and energy consumption, but the efforts is not enough, the greater efforts is needed to decline the decoupling index constantly. Established the carbon emissions forecast model, and designed27kinds of forecast scenarios, predicted the level of GDP, energy consumption, carbon emissions, decoupling relationship between economic and carbon emissions. Finally, proposed the carbon reduction strategy in He’nan province.