Study On The Status And Requirement Forecast Of The Health Manpower Resource In Fuyang

Objectives This study, by analyzing the status of health manpower resource in Fuyang,was finding out the main problem which has existed in the health manpower resources.Then use a forecasting model Brown cubic exponential smoothing of health manpowerresource to forecast the number of health technological personnel in the target year of2012-2015, and provide evidence for health personnel planning in Fuyang.Methods Using the self-designed questionnaire to survey the status of healthmanpower resource in Fuyang in2010. The descriptive study of epidemiology wasused in analyzing proportion of the education, technical post and area district of thehealth technological personnel for its development rate in1995to2011.The demandsof health technological personnel, doctors (including assistant doctors) and registerednurses were estimated and predicted by Brown cubic exponential smoothing.Results The data showed that in2010, there were23157health personnel in total inFuyang, including19095health technological personnel (HTP,82.46%) in Fuyang.34.34%of HTP are centralized in different types of hospitals, the proportions of theHTP for Town Health Centers and Community Clinics is22.97%, CDC institution andMaternal and Child Health Institutions is2.57%.The number of HTP, doctors andnurses per1000persons on average were1.89,0.81and0.57respectively. The numberof HTP, doctors and nurses per square kilometer on average were1.95,0.84and0.59respectively. The most of health personnel graduated from technical-secondary schools(57.78%). and12.80ï¼…from colleges. The ratio for doctor and nurse was1:0.49.Baseon the forecasted results by the year of2012-2015in Fuyang, the number of health technological personnel will be24917,28332,32304and36412; the number ofdoctors (including assistant doctors) will be9479,10467,11583and12833; the numberof registered nurses will be9128,11075,13320and15881.Conclusions In Fuyang the total amount of health manpower resource is relativelyless than being normal; the indicator of health personnel per1000people is low; publichealth personnel is in deficiency; the construction work for the community healthmanpower resource needs strengthening; the ratio between doctors and nurses wasunbalanced and inverted which is very serious in Town Health Centers where thenursing team wants improving; also in Rural Health Clinics the level of the wholemedical staff is low with a poor intellectual structure, it is not easy to improve theskills and competence of the doctors working in Town Health Centers due to theirrelatively low professional level; the distribution equity of health manpower resourceamong population and regions is uneven, but passing the warning line and thepopulation equity is prior to that of region.