Oil And Gas Exploration Project Risk Identification And Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method Research

With the unbalanced supply and demand of the China’s domestic oil-gas resource and the rising dependency of oil-gas on foreign countries, oil and gas’s supply of China is facing serious security problems, therefore, increasing the exploration efforts for oil and gas resources in China is one of the most important development strategy to ensure oil supply security. Compared the oil and gas exploration projects with other projects, they have high risk, high investment, the long investment cycle and so on, so there are much more risk factors in oil and gas exploration project during the implementation process, in order to ensure the implementation of the exploration project smoothly,and reduce the losses caused by the risk factors, it has important and practical significance for researching on risk identification and evaluation of oil and gas exploration project.Taken the risk of oil-gas exploration project as this paper’s research object, considering to the characteristics of the exploration project, and based on the risk management theories in project, we study the oil and gas exploration project risk identification and risk assessment methods in depth. First of all, applied the view of system analysis, combined with the causal analysis and environmental analysis to identify risk factors of oil and gas exploration projects, and with expert investigation method to filter out the major risk factors for oil and gas exploration projects; On this basis, according to the principle of hierarchical subordination, risk factors are divided into eight categories:economic risk, political and legal risk, geological risk, technical risk, market risk, environmental risk, management risk and financial risk, building a risk assessment system for oil and gas exploration projects; secondly, using the improved analytic hierarchy process (the IAHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to establish the risk assessment model of oil and gas exploration project, in order to determine the risk indexes’ weight of the oil and gas exploration project, and make the overall evaluation of project risks; Finally, the application of case verify the feasibility and applicability of the model of oil-gas exploration project risk assessment.