The Evaluation Of Environmental Impact On The Plan Of Livestock And Poultry Breeding

With the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure, livestock and poultry breeding has developed increasingly. While making agricultural synergism and the promotion of peasant incomes come true, this industry also brings serious environmental problems, such as livestock manure emissions and water pollution. Especially along with the rapid development of livestock and poultry breeding on a scale, there has appeared heavy pressure on environment. As the dominant components of agricultural area-source pollution, livestock manure emissions and pollutant in sewage have been the highlight in environmental problems, which not only make the development of socio-economy conditioned, but also become the restraint of this industry.According to the attributes and of the plan of livestock and poultry breeding and the current situation of this industry in our country, this paper will analyze the features of pollutant emission of livestock and poultry breeding and the impact on environment from it based on the theory of environmental science, geography and ecology. The paper makes some research on the theory and technique of the evaluation of environmental impact on the plan of livestock and poultry breeding, which is provided as an important the theoretic foundation for the institutionalization and standardization of multi-attribute decisions on livestock and poultry breeding.Taking statistical yearbook, research materials and data of the industry of Shangcheng County as research basis, this paper adopts sequence forecast model to simulate environment capacity of Shangcheng’s livestock and poultry breeding in2010-2015and study the evaluation of environmental impact of12th Five-year Plan of Animal Husbandry in Shangcheng County. It shows that this model is useful to the prediction of environment capacity of livestock and poultry breeding.Besides, it takes the proportion held by the livestock and poultry breeding output value in agriculture output value, the amount of the surface and the subsoil water resource, the real crop acreage the end of the year, the produced volume of COD, TN and TP to construct a system of standard and analysis model to predict the environment capacity. The result shows that the capacity tends to increase and is higher than that in2015, which means the12th five-year plan is feasible. In spite of this, the environment capacity in2015is still higher than the safety level, as the practice of the plan, in some extent, cuts down the capacity, which calls for taking actions to promote the environment capacity.