Research On The Influence Of Mathematical Statistics Based On The Geological Characteristics Of Dam Dams To Its Stability

The dammed lake is a common geological phenomenon.It is formed by the collapse of the mountains cloged the valleys and river courses due to rainfall,earthquakes,volcanic eruptions,etc.The formation of dams is suddenly,dangerous,and complex.Most dams will collapse in a short period of time after they formed,coupled with extremely harsh survey conditions,making it difficult to obtain the detailed parameters of the dam body in a limited time,but the topographic geometric parameters of the dam are relatively easy to obtain.The dam is always a key issue in the field of natural disaster prevention and control in China.Studying the influence of geotechnical parameters of the dam on the stability of the dam,and using limited terrain data to assess and predict the stability and life of the dam quickly,have important scientific value and practical significance in emergency rescue.In this paper,on the basis of extensive reading and comprehension of domestic and abroad literature on the relevant fields of dams,a large number of dam cases have been collected and database of dams has been established.Based on the dam database,SPSS software is used to statistically analyse the characteristics of the dam.Based on Fisher discriminant analysis,logistic regression,multivariate regression model and other mathematical statistics methods,two rapid assessment models for the stability of dams based on topographic geometric factors and a prediction model for the life prediction of a dammed lake are established,and analyzed the importance of each variable in each model.Finally,through the three real cases of Tangjiashan landslide Dam,Hongshiyan landslide dam,and Muyuzhen landslide dam,the rapid assessment model for the stability of the dam and the life prediction model of the dammed lake are verified by actual cases.The main conclusions are:(1)Dams are mainly distributed in countries and regions with frequent geological disasters;earthquakes and rainfall are the most precipitating factors of dams;according to the statistics,after the formation,there are 12% of dams was broken within one hour,33% of dams was broken within one day,70% of dams was broken within one month,and overtopping is the main destructive mode of the dam.(2)The cross-validation accuracy of the stability model based on terrain parameters was 77%,and the AUC values are 0.839 and 0.835,respectively,which reach a excellent significant level.The topographic geometrical factor that has the greatest influence on the stability of the dam is the dam height and dam volume,followed by the reservoir capacity and water area of the dammed lake.(3)The actual verification results of the dam example shows that the prediction results of the dam stability evaluation model based on the terrain parameters are basically consistent with the actual situation.The calculation results of the life prediction model are a bit over risk,but within the reasonable range of deviation,they have a certain practical significance and reference value for disaster rescue and relief.