Measurement And Test Of Real Estate Bubble Under Irrational Expectation

In China,the real estate industry is a basic and forward-looking industry,which promotes the development of the relevant industrial chain while developing,and is also the leading industry in the development of China's national economy.Throughout the real estate market,the housing price in China has shown a spurt of growth,which has aroused people's doubts about whether there is a bubble in the real estate industry.If there is a bubble,how to measure the bubble?Through the existing literature review at home and abroad,the evaluation methods for the real estate bubble have their own advantages and disadvantages.Therefore,it is an urgent problem to establish a research that can accurately measure the degree of the real estate bubble in combination with the actual situation in China.Firstly,this paper summarizes the existing methods of real estate bubble at home and abroad,and also explains in detail the irrational factors of the factors causing the adaptability of real estate developers to the expected real estate price and the noise traders with herd mentality under the land "bidding,auction and listing" system.Second,this paper USES the SADF and GSADF methods proposed by Phillips et al.(2012)to test the price bubble in China's real estate market.Beijing,Wuhan and Kunming were selected from first-tier cities,second-tier cities and third-tier cities to conduct bubble tests on their average housing prices.Third,this article from the microeconomic consumer utility maximization and manufacturers profit maximization,build the rational and irrational expectations of consumers-the real estate business model,from the aspect of rational expectations to determine the price of real estate industry fundamentals,speculation from the irrational expectations level to determine the price,finally combining the two aspects of real estate bubble evaluation formula is given.Fourth,by consulting the relevant statistical data of Beijing,Wuhan and Kunming statistical bureau,this paper empirically tested the data through the econometric model,and concluded that there were real estate bubbles in Beijing,Wuhan and Kunming,demonstrating the effectiveness of the model from the perspective of empirical test.Finally,this paper makes a comparative analysis of the above two methods,analyzes the reasons for the differences in the real estate bubbles in these three cities from the perspectives of the central bank's money supply and the growth of real estate development investment,and gives appropriate Suggestions on the existing problems in real estate from the perspectives of consumers and real estate developers.