Industry Carbon Emissions Decomposition And Simulation Of Peak Carbon Emissions In China

Global warming has attracted worldwide attention due to the large amount of greenhouse gas emissions,and the main component of greenhouse gas emissions is carbon dioxide emissions,so we believe that it is important to combat global warming by reducing and controlling carbon dioxide emissions.China is in the stage of rapid development of industrialization and urbanization,which generates a large amount of carbon dioxide emissions.China became the largest emitter on carbon dioxide emissions in 2007.Therefore,it becomes crucial to properly handle the issues between economic development and energy conservation.The term“low-carbon economy”proposed by the British Energy White Paper in 2003 sparked heated discussions,and the development of low-carbon economy has become a trend.China proposed the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction in the“13th Five-Year Plan for Controlling Greenhouse Gas Emissions”,carbon emissions per unit GDP would have dropped by 18%compared to 2015 levels.And it expressed the intent to achieve effective control of total carbon emissions and to strive to reach peak emissions levels in the heavy chemical industry around 2020.At the same time,it has been stipulated that all regions,industries,and departments would consider carbon emission policy requirements for the formulation of any development indicators.Therefore,it has become a consensus to reduce carbon emissions by transforming the pattern of economic development,and it is also an important way to cope with global warming in China.This article makes a comparative analysis of industrial structure evolves of countries which reaching peak level in carbon emissions,and then uses the PDA factorization model to analyze the impact factors of carbon emissions in specific industry sectors based on industry perspectives.Simultaneously,the paper predicts the development trend of carbon emissions and analyzes the deadline for reaching peak level on carbon emission in China by the simultaneous equation model.Finally,based on empirical analysis and discussion,policy suggestions for energy savings and emission reduction in China are put forward,and these provide a reference point for policy-making to across the peak on carbon emissions in China.The main findings are as follows:（1）There are five countries selected from the United Kingdom,France,Japan,the United States,and Denmark in order to analyze the evolution of the industrial structure of the countries which have reached a peak.The results show that the carbon emissions per unit GDP of the five countries has reached a peak before the sample time,and the downward trend became apparent after 1970.While CO₂ emissions and per capita CO₂emissions have not yet reached the peak,indicating that the peak of carbon emissions per unit GDP is earlier than the two emissions,according to statistical analysis,China’s carbon emissions per unit GDP also meet this condition.CO₂ emissions and per capita CO₂ emissions have risen in China,and emission intensity has reached a peak in 1977,but it is significantly later than other sample countries;and for CO₂ emissions and per capita CO₂ emissions,there are consistent trends in China and other five countries.The time of peak respectively on CO₂ emissions and per capita CO₂ emissions is the same in Britain,Japan,Denmark,while France’s peak time is not far away.The proportion of the tertiary industry has occupied the first place of the countries which have reached a peak in 1970,and gradually optimized and adjusted thereafter.The tertiary industry continued to develop rapidly and have becomed the dominant force in strengthening the national economic strength.Meanwhile,the tertiary industry vigorously promotes low-carbon development after the 20th century which works on the research of advanced low-carbon technologies,and high-tech enterprises have achieved rapid development.While China is in the process of industrialization,the proportion between the secondary and tertiary industries is close to 1:1,carbon emissions are slowly rising,so controlling the development of carbon emissions has its necessity.（2）A factor factorization model is constructed to investigate the action mechanisms of influencing factors on carbon emissions in 23 industries,decomposing potential energy carbon intensity factors,energy structure factors,potential energy intensity factors,potential GDP factors,technological progress and technological efficiency factors in carbon emissions,technological progress and technical efficiency factors in energy,technical progress and technical efficiency factors in GDP output.The results found that the potential GDP factor was an important factor in increasing carbon emissions,and it even determined the direction of change of carbon emissions.The potential carbon intensity factor also increased carbon emissions due to high emissions characteristic of coal.The potential energy intensity factor played a significant role in suppressing carbon emissions.The energy structure factor had a weaker inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.The technological progress factor and technological efficiency factor had not played a consistent role in different industries,the technological progress factor in GDP output had a certain degree of inhibition on carbon emissions.（3）In the face of the continuing upward trend of CO₂ emissions,when and how carbon emissions reach the peak has become the focus of many people’s attention.In Chapter 5,the simultaneous model was constructed to predict carbon emissions for some time in the future.First,the model investigates the dynamic action mechanisms of scale effect,structural effect,and technical effect or their internal disturbance factors on carbon emissions from a systems perspective.The results found that the common game between scale effects structural effect,and technical effect determined the change direction of carbon emission,structural and technical effects acted as an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.According to the results of the simulation,when the carbon emissions reach a peak,the increase in carbon emissions caused by the economic scale will be offset by the structural and technical effects,and the CO₂ emissions will decline.Under the fourth simulation scenarios,CO₂ emissions in 2030 will be 11.2 billion tons,which reach the peak.（4）Based on the above analysis and discussion,there are policies and recommendations proposed for energy conservation and emission reduction in China based on the research contents,which mainly include improving the quality of economic development,establishing a balanced relationship between economic development and ecological environment protection;and optimizing energy structure,developing clean energy,at the same time improving China’s overall level of innovation.