| In recent years,the impact of global climate change getting more intensified,the voice of the international community requires countries to save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are also becoming higher and higher.Since the reform and opening up,with the increasingly perfect transportation system,the continuous improvement of people's living standards,the changing ideas and ways of life,our country has realized the historic leap from the tourism shortage country to the tourism power country.At the same time,Greenhouse gas emissions which from energy consumption have also increased significantly.China's economic growth has stepped into the new normal,the tourism industry plays an important role to promote employment,pull investment and steady economic growth.How to decrease greenhouse gas emissions under the premise of promoting the development of tourism,is a worthy subject that need scholars in-depth study.Firstly,we described the current situation of China's tourism industry from the aspects of tourism's economic development and energy consumption,then,use input-output method,based on the "top-down" point of view,calculated the direct,indirect and complete carbon emissions of China's tourism industry in 2002,2005,2007,2010 and 2012.Secondly,we combined with Kaya identity and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,decomposed China's tourism completely carbon emissions into four factors: the carbon emissions intensity,the income structure,the consumption level and the visitor scale.Finally,we set the BAU scenario,LC scenario and ELC scenario with the scenario analysis method,then described and measured each scenario from the energy efficiency,the way of tourism and the tourism development scale,and forecasted the total carbon emissions of China's tourism industry in 2015,2020 and 2025.This paper is in order to provide references for the future development of tourism in China.The main results and conclusions are as follows:(1)During the study year,the energy consumption,direct,indirect and complete carbon emissions of the tourism industry increased significantly,but the direct,indirect and complete carbon emission intensity showed a decreasing trend.In 2012,the tourism energy consumption and direct,indirect and complete carbon emissions were 43.5453 Mt of standard coal,106.6859 Mt,261.0584 Mt and 367.7244 Mt of carbon dioxide respectively,the carbon emission intensity of 0.55kgCO2 /ten thousands yuan,1.35kgCO2 / ten thousands yuan and 1.90 kgCO2 / ten thousands yuan.From 2002 to 2012,the tourism's total energy consumption and carbon emissions were increased,while carbon intensity showed a decreasing trend,indicated that tourism's economic growth had a positive effect on carbon emissions higher than the carbon emission intensity which had a negative effect on carbon emissions.During the study year,the income structure and carbon structure of the tourism industry changed little.The largest sector of the carbon emissions in the tourism industry was traffic of tourism,followed by the accommodation and shopping sector of tourism,these three-sector have made ninety percent carbon emissions in the total carbon emissions.Indirect carbon emissions in tourism is far more than direct carbon emissions,which accounted for 60% of total carbon emissions.The task of carbon emissions reduction not only need efforts from the direct relevant departments of tourism,but also need cooperative from other industrial sectors.(2)The intensity of carbon emissions and the tourists are the most important factors to the tourism carbon emissions.The carbon emission reductions which caused by the decrease of carbon emission intensity during the study period are 115.4761 Mt,and the contribution rate is-62.75%.The cumulative increase of carbon emissions which caused by the expansion of tourists reached 287.2236 Mt,and the contribution rate is 156.09%.Consumption level is the secondary factor to promote the increase of carbon emissions.Income structure has a little affect to carbon emissions.During the study year,the total carbon emissions of the tourism industry increased by 184.0203 Mt,which indicated that the promotion effect of each factor on carbon emission was stronger than that of the control.If remain the existing technology level and development mode,China's tourism industry would face the huge emission pressure in the future.(3)The BAU scenario is the highest carbon emissions model in three scenarios,the LC scenario is the next highest carbon footprint,and the ELC scenario is the lowest carbon footprint.By 2020,LC scenarios and ELC scenarios can achieve targets with a 45% ~50% drop in carbon emission intensity compared to 2005,while BAU cannot achieve this goal.In the ELC scenario,the tourism industry carbon emissions would reach the peak in about 2020,ahead of time to achieve the commitment that China will reach the peak of carbon emissions in 203,LC scenario through continuous technological transformation and upgrading,but also to achieve this goal,and BAU scenario cannot honor this promise.The development model of the tourism industry under the BAU scenario runs counter to the development concept of the world and the carbon reduction commitments of the country,it's an unsustainable development mode.In the ELC scenario,the carbon emissions of tourism industry is reduced by increasing the carbon tax and reducing the scale of material production,which will limit the development of China's tourism industry and sacrifice the legitimate development rights and interests of China,it's not desirable.Currently,China's economy is in a downward period,the tourism industry has a pivotal role to stabilize China's economic growth,LC Scenario realize the win-win situation of carbon emission reduction and economic growth that not by restricting the development of tourism economy,but through upgrading the technological,improving the energy structure,improving the energy efficiency and changing the consumption concept and travel mode,which is the most possible model of China's tourism development in the future. |
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