Research On The Inversion Method Of Tank Fire Accident Based On Markov Chain

With the continuous expansion of crude oil tank volume,the risk of tank fire is also increasing.In the event of a tank fire,the fire will quickly spread.After the accident,the source of the fire is quickly inferred according to the situation on the site,and the fire propagation path is determined.Then the causes of the relevant accidents are summarized,which is of great significance for the investigation of the cause of the accident.The main research work of this thesis is as follows:(1)Statistical analysis of large-scale crude oil storage tank fire accidents at home and abroad,and numerical simulation of typical crude oil storage tank fires,and analysis of parameters such as temperature and heat radiation amount of tanks adjacent to the ignition tank under different fire scenarios,The effect of the ignition tank on the surrounding storage tanks under different fire scenarios,according to the simulation results,the influence of four fire scenarios on the adjacent tank is as follows: fire of fire embankment > full surface fire > partial fire > seal ring fire.(2)The coupling factors of each stage are classified from the four stages of the development of tank fire,and the influence of the coupling factors is analyzed.It is found that the wind speed has a great influence on the fire of the storage tank.The fire simulation software FLACS is used to simulate the pool fire of crude oil storage tanks under the wind speed of 0m/s,4m/s,9m/s and 13m/s,and the parameters of the adjacent tanks are analyzed,so as to obtain the influence degree of the adjacent tanks under different wind speed,the influence degree of the four wind speeds on the adjacent tank ranks as: 13m/s>9m/s>4m/s>0m/s.(3)A markov chain-based method is proposed for the inversion of fire accident propagation path of oil storage tanks.FLACS fire data were used to obtain the failure probability of storage tanks with different distances under wind speeds of 0m/s,4m/s,9m/s and 13m/s.The simulation method is applied to the inversion of fire propagation path of Huangdao oil storage tanks,The inversion path is:(1)—(4)—(5),(2)(3)—(5).