Risk Assessment Of Major Projects Of Foreign Investment Of Chinese Enterprises In The Context Of "Belt And Road"

In 2015,China put forward the economic initiatives of "silk road economic belt" and "21st century maritime silk road"(hereinafter referred to as "One Belt And One Road"),aiming to promote economic cooperation between China and countries along the belt and road.Driven by the "One Belt And One Road" initiative,enterprises accelerated their steps of “going out”.In 2015,Chinese enterprises directly invested in 49 countries related to "One Belt And One Road",with a total investment of 14.82 billion US dollars,with a year-on-year increase of 18.2%,and investment went mainly to Singapore,Kazakhstan,Laos,Indonesia,Russia and Thailand,etc.While "One Belt And One Road" drives the expansion of China's OFDI(outward foreign direct investment)scale,the risk problem is worrying.Countries along the "One Belt And One Road" route account for a large proportion of the failure cases of China's major overseas investment projects.The political and economic situation of countries along the "One Belt And One Road" route is relatively complicated,and some countries' political instability,regime change,war and chaos,terrorist activities and other risks aggravate the occurrence of investment.The historical failure cases of China's investment in major projects in countries along the "One Belt And One Road" have reminded us again that the risks of enterprises' investment in major projects abroad cannot be ignored.First of all,through the study of literature,this paper conducts model building from four aspects including political factors,economic factors,social and cultural factors,and management factors to evaluate the risk factors of the major projects invested by specific enterprises based on the analysis and comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of the current risk assessment methods for major projects of foreign investment.Based on the construction of cloud model of risk assessment collection,cloud model of risk factor weight,cloud model of membership degree and cloud model of comprehensive evaluation,for major projects of foreign investment,the paper uses the three unique numerical characteristics of cloud models,namely,EX(expectation),EN(entropy)and He(hyperentropy)to integrate fuzziness,randomness and discreteness so as to realize the natural conversion between the qualitative language and the quantitative value of uncertain measurement.Finaly,taking Sozak Petroleum and Natural Gas Project as an example,the paper uses this cloud model to evaluate the risk of the project under the current situation.The results show that the model corrects the randomness and fuzziness in the risk assessment process compared with the previous risk assessment methods and makes this method more objective and more reasonable,which may become a more effective risk assessment method.