Production Forecast And Scheduling Optimization Based On Combination Forecast In MTO

With the wide application of the 5G technology and the emergence of new retail mode,intelligent manufacturing mode has become a new field for manufacturing enterprises to compete.The problems of production management in production enterprises make enterprises face great pressure in the market competition.Compared with other means to improve the competitiveness of enterprises,such as production management optimization and product innovation,the preparation of a reasonable production plan makes the production of enterprises stable,flexible response to market changes has the advantages of low cost and easy implementation.More and more enterprise managers pay attention to it.At present,most of the manufacturing enterprises adopt MTO order driven production mode,while the production planning of the manufacturing enterprises in MTO mode is faced with the lack of production planning prediction,which is divided into two aspects.The first is the lack of production capacity prediction.The second is the lack of prediction of the total completion time.Through the research of production management theory in production forecast,production planning and production scheduling,it is found that production forecast is very important to production activities and production management.In order to test this idea,this paper studies the production planning and scheduling optimization of H enterprise,which is a MTO Manufacturing Enterprise in China.Combined with the current research on enterprise production plan prediction management and total completion time prediction,this paper studies the production plan formulation and scheduling optimization of H enterprise.The specific research content includes the following 3 aspects.First of all,this paper uses the literature research method to understand the production planning management system,production capacity prediction,completion time prediction and combination prediction method.At the same time,it uses the method of actual investigation to enter the production management department of H enterprise to study and understand the specific production situation,and summarizes and combs the production problems existing in the enterprise.Secondly,in view of the practical problems in the production planning of H enterprise,different prediction models are proposed for capacity prediction and total completion time prediction,and the combination prediction method is used to solve the production prediction problem.The single prediction model selected in this paper includes exponential smoothing prediction model,GM(1,1)grey theory prediction model,Arima prediction model and BP neural network prediction model.GM(1,1)-exponential smoothing combined forecasting model and ARIMA-BP combined forecasting model are proposed.Finally,according to the establishment of the prediction model and the actual production data of H enterprise,the production plan of H enterprise is reasonably prepared,which provides technical support for solving the low completion rate of the enterprise plan.At the same time,through the prediction of the completion time,the production capacity load of the enterprise is analyzed to provide certain technical support for the production management decision-making of the enterprise.Therefore,the prediction of production capacity and completion time in production planning has certain practical and theoretical significance for improving the rationality of production planning,optimizing production management activities,improving production efficiency,ensuring the delivery rate of orders and other production management activities.