Spatial-temporal Change And Multi-scenario Prediction Of Land Use In Urumqi

In response to the shrinkage of ecological land area,the reduction of agricultural productive land area and the increase of ecological resource load due to the rapid development of Urumqi city,which in turn leads to a series of phenomena such as frequent occurrence of natural disasters such as wind and sandstorm.This paper combines previous research on spatial and temporal land use change in Urumqi city,and starts from the research methodological gap of multi-scenario prediction of land use in Urumqi city,based on which Geo SOS-FLUS,a more mature land use scenario simulation model,is selected to provide theoretical reference for the subsequent research on spatial and temporal land use change in oasis cities and mountainous cities in arid and semi-arid areas such as Urumqi city.In this paper,Urumqi city,i.e.,the seven districts and one county under the current jurisdiction,was selected as the study area,and spatial and temporal changes of each land use type in Urumqi city were analyzed based on the theory and method of landscape ecology using seven periods of Landsat image data from 1990 to 2020.Based on geographic probes,the impact of natural and social drivers of land use change in Urumqi from 1990 to 2020 was analyzed using natural driver and social driver data such as elevation,slope,and site climate data.Based on Geo SOS-FLUS land use scenario simulation model,three scenario simulation prediction analysis of land use in Urumqi in 2030 using 2020 Urumqi land use data and driver data were used to contribute to the ecological sustainable development of Urumqi.The results of the study were obtained as follows:1.From 1990 to 2020,the land use in Urumqi changes drastically,the overall show a sharp expansion trend.In terms of land use area transfer,with the improvement of transportation network since 2010,the construction land further expands rapidly,resulting in the shrinkage of perimeter arable land,forest land and grassland by 95.12 km~2,6.49 km~2 and 52.37 km~2.As for the spatial distribution of land use,the porosity of the spatial pattern of land use in Urumqi increases,the spatial distribution of each land use becomes more and more compact,the complexity of land use increases in local areas,and the types of land functions increase.At the same time the focus of construction land also shows a trend towards the east and north.2.The influence of the main driving factors of land use change of construction land in Urumqi from 1990 to 2000,in descending order,are altitude(33.7%),slope(22.8%),distance from rivers(17.1%),slope direction(8.2%),distance from major roads(6.5%),average annual precipitation(3.9%),distance from railroads(4.2%),annual average temperature(3.6%).The influence of the main drivers of land use change of construction land in Urumqi from 2000 to 2010,in descending order,are altitude(24.8%),distance from railroads(24.2%),distance from major roads(12.5%),slope(12.1%),distance from rivers(8.8%),slope direction(6.5%),average annual precipitation(5.6%),annual average temperature(5.5%).The influence of the main drivers of land use change of construction land in Urumqi from 2010 to 2020 is,in descending order,distance from major roads(30.6%),altitude(22.5%),distance from railroads(20.7%),slope(9.6%),distance from rivers(5.8%),slope direction(5.5%),average annual precipitation(3.6%),average annual temperature(1.7%).It is easy to find that the influence of the main drivers of land use change in Urumqi from 1990 to 2020 shows a trend that the influence of natural drivers is gradually smaller than that of social drivers.Before 2000,the overall influence of natural drivers is larger than that of social drivers,and after 2000,the overall influence of natural drivers is smaller than that of social drivers.However,the two natural drivers of elevation and slope are still the main drivers of land use evolution of construction land and the overall land use evolution in Urumqi city.3.In 2030,under the scenario of priority of primary industry(production priority)in Urumqi,the area of construction land and arable land expands by 617.14 km~2 and 611.71 km~2,while the average sub-dimension1.13,aggregation index 93.83 and landscape separation 0.96 are calculated,which shows that the regional arable land is highly contiguous,and the ecological space area also has a certain increase,showing the urban construction space and ecological space are developing together.Under the scenario of priority of secondary and tertiary industries(economic priority),the construction land significantly increases by 1142.94 km~2,with the average sub-dimension of 1.44,aggregation index of 92.13 and landscape separation of 0.97,which shows that the construction land is concentrated in the center and the overall fragmentation is high,showing that the growth rate of urban construction space is higher than that of ecological space;Under the ecological priority scenario,the area of woodland,grassland and water with high ecological efficiency increases significantly by281.59 km~2,651.38 km~2 and 7.29 km~2,and the average sub-dimension of this scenario is 1.11,the aggregation index is 95.46 and the landscape separation is 0.94.It can be seen that the area of ecological patches increases significantly,showing that the growth rate of ecological space is greater than that of urban construction space.