Research On The Dynamic Equilibrium Relationship And Decoupling Effect Among China’s Carbon Emissions,energy Consumption And Economic Growth

Since the reform and opening up,great progress have been made by China’s economy.From a GDP of only 367.87 billion yuan in 1978,to surpassing Japan to become the world’s second largest economy in 2010,and to a GDP of 99.08 trillion yuan in 2019.In the past 50 years,it has achieved an economic growth rate of about 268 times,started the "China Speed"and created the "Chinese Miracle".However,with the deepening of industrialization and urbanization,economic development caused carbon emissions,which has brought great pressure to the environment,such as extreme weather and environmental degradation.International Energy Agency(IEA)releasing public data showed that the global carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in 2018 were about 331 tons,of which nearly three-quarters came from China,India and the United States.China is the largest developing country in the world and also a major carbon emitter,which economic development decisions have a profound impact on the changes of world’s political and economic pattern.Therefore,lots of efforts has been made by China to reduce the growth rate of carbon emissions,such as changing the development mode.Simultaneously,China promises the world to achieve the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and significantly reduce unit GDP of carbon dioxide emissions.Based on this reason,how to coordinate the cyclical development of economy,energy,and environment,and how to resolve the contradiction between economic development and energy environment are the key issues for China to adjust its development model.For comprehensively researching the dynamic relationship between China’s carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic growth,firstly,this paper sorts out the background of the topic and clarifies the significance of the research.Focusing on the urgency of the current world and China’s environmental issues,it explores the urgent need for solutions in the coordinated development of China’s economy and environment.Secondly,from a theoretical perspective,the relevant concepts and development status of Chinese carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic growth were systematically analyzed and a comprehensive analysis was conducted from three perspectives:economic development,changes in energy structure,and changes in carbon emission measurement indicators.The study found that with the gradual transition of China’s economy to high-quality development,China’s energy structure tends to be diversified and cleaner,but carbon emissions from coal consumption are still the main factor in China’s total carbon emissions.Third,based on the perspective of classification,this paper uses unit root test,cointegration analysis and Granger causality test based on VECM to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the relationship among energy consumption,economic growth and carbon emissions from the total and classification levels.The study found that China’s energy consumption,economic growth,and CO2 emissions have a long-term and balanced correspondence;coal energy consumption,petroleum energy consumption,natural gas energy consumption and electricity energy consumption and CO2 emissions have a two-way causal relationship.While economic growth and CO2 emissions from coal consumption only have a one-way causal relationship from economic growth to CO2 emissions,and there is no mutual causal feedback relationship.Fourth,this paper explores the decoupling effect of China’s carbon emissions from the dual perspectives of energy classification and indicator classification,which aims to explore the decoupling effect of carbon emissions in China’s main energy consumption,and conduct a three-step decoupling analysis of total carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions,and carbon emission intensity.The research results show that the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions from coal consumption and economic growth is basically in a positive development trend;carbon emissions from oil and electricity consumption are basically in a weak decoupling state from economic growth;The carbon emissions generated by natural gas consumption and economic growth maintained a long-term"expansive coupling" from 2001 to 2012,but experienced "expansion negative decoupling--expansive coupling--weak decoupling--expansive coupling--expansion negative decoupling" in 2013-2017.It shows that China’s series of measures to save energy,reduce emissions and achieve green development have achieved remarkable results.The existence of three-stage decoupling is because economic growth has always been a priority for national development.The decoupling of carbon emissions in a country can only be accomplished by the sequential decoupling of carbon emission intensity,carbon emission per capita and total carbon emission.China’s carbon emission intensity and economic growth have basically maintained a strong decoupling state,indicating that China has basically completed the first stage of decoupling.China’s carbon emission intensity and economic growth have basically maintained a strong decoupling state,indicating that China has basically completed the first stage of decoupling.The change trend of the per capita carbon emission decoupling index and the total carbon emission decoupling index are basically the same:2001-2013 was basically in a weak decoupling state,and 2014-2017 was a tick-shaped change of "strong decoupling-weak decoupling".It shows that as China actively adjusts its economic development mode,the implementation of related policies has achieved remarkable results,and the current development direction is in line with the long-term interests of China’s economic development.Finally,policy recommendations from the aspects of national strategies,industrial structure transformation and upgrading,and energy structure adjustment have been proposed by this paper.Based on the total and classification perspectives,this paper studies the relationship and the decoupling effect among China’s carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic growth.Compared with previous studies,the main work of this paper is:(1)The relationship among energy consumption,economic growth and carbon emissions from the total and classification levels have been comprehensively analyzed,which systematically expounds the feedback mechanism of major energy,carbon emissions and economic growth in China.(2)Based on the perspective of energy classification,this paper uses the Tapio decoupling index to analyze the decoupling relationship among China’s main energy(coal,oil,natural gas,electricity)consumption,carbon emissions and economic growth.From the perspective of energy classification,exploring the decoupling effect of carbon emissions in China’s major energy consumption can better reflect the key role of energy in energy conservation,emission reduction and economic development.(3)This paper introduces carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emission into the decoupling effect analysis,which aims to systematically study the three aspects of China’s carbon emission decoupling from the perspective of index classification.So as to provide more accurate suggestions for China to better realize the decoupling of carbon emissions from economic growth.