Reseach On The Optimization Of The Joint Reserve Mode Of Emergency Materials Under Public Health Emergencies

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,public health emergencies such as SARS,influenza A（H1N1）,and COVID-19 have occurred frequently,seriously threatening human life and property safety.Some countries and regions often experience shortage of emergency materials and waste of deteriorating materials in response to infectious disease public health emergencies,and emergency materials are important material guarantees for emergency rescue work,and a sound emergency material reserve management mode plays an important role in improving emergency rescue efficiency and avoiding material gaps after disasters.Therefore,it is necessary to make a reasonable forecast of the demand of emergency materials in the emergency preparation stage,determine the optimal reserve mode for different types of materials and reserve them effectively,so as to realize the effective guarantee of emergency materials.Firstly,the scenario of public health emergencies with infectious diseases is constructed based on the "risk-situation-task-capacity" line in the emergency preparation stage,and the SARIMA time series simulation prediction model is used to predict the number of material requirements under the conventional infectious disease scenario;the SEIHDR simulation prediction model is constructed by introducing the proportion of hospitalization and the number of deaths to realize the number of material requirements under the new infectious disease scenario.The SEIHDR simulation model was used to predict the number of people in need of materials under the scenario of new infectious diseases,and the data of COVID-19 in Wuhan were selected for empirical comparison to verify the validity of the model;The seasonality,per capita demand difference and age composition ratio were taken into account to build the prediction model for the quantity of materials under two types of scenarios to predict the quantity of different types of emergency medical materials under infectious disease public health emergencies.Then,the value loss model based on Weibull distribution was constructed to determine the optimal renewal rotation period for different types of materials,determining the value loss characteristics of emergency materials.Based on the shelf-life characteristics of emergency medical materials,the emergency medical materials are divided into two categories: long-quality materials and short-quality materials,and combined with the application characteristics of the real option contract and the production capacity option contract,the optimization models of joint stockpiling of long-quality materials and shortquality materials based on the real option contract and the production capacity option contract are constructed respectively,and the results are compared with those of the government’s separate stockpiling model.The results of solving the relevant variables are compared,so as to optimize the reserve quantity of emergency materials,the expected cost of government,the expected profit of enterprises and the value of emergency materials,and realize the optimization of the joint reserve model of emergency materials.Finally,taking Shandong Province as an example,two scenarios are constructed to predict the demand for emergency materials under the conventional infectious disease scenario and the emerging infectious disease scenario,respectively,and the forecast results of different types of emergency materials are brought into the single government reserve model and The solution is carried out in the multi-agent joint reserve optimization model under the option contract of physical and production capacity.Combined with the national emergency material reserve requirements,the reserve limits of different types of materials under the two scenarios were obtained respectively,and the optimal solutions of variables such as emergency material reserve quantity,reserve cost,expected profit and material value under different reserve modes were compared and analyzed.In this way,the optimal reserve strategy for different types of materials is obtained.Applied research found:considering the value of materials loss characteristics,the emergency material reserve model can be optimized from the aspects of emergency material reserve,reserve cost,enterprise expected profit and emergency material value;compared with the single government reserve model,the multi-agent joint reserve model can greatly reduce the government reduce the cost of emergency material reserves,increase the expected profit of cooperative enterprises,increase the reserves of different types of materials,and the use value of emergency materials can be more effectively used,which is conducive to improving the rescue effectiveness of emergency materials and ensuring the efficient dispatch of emergency materials after disasters,to provide certain guidance for the government to optimize the emergency material reserve model,formulate emergency material reserve plans,and efficiently respond to public health emergencies.