Draft Study On Multi-stage Emergency Material Distribution In Public Health Emergencies

With the rapid development of global economy,the structure of population,resources and environment is increasingly diversified,and the complexity and uncertainty of society are increasing day by day.In such an environment,public health emergencies occur from time to time around the world,and to a great extent threaten people’s lives,health,property safety,and social stability and progress.Therefore,it is extremely urgent to quickly respond to major public health emergencies,formulate reasonable and effective control measures,and formulate efficient and accurate emergency material distribution plans to improve the efficiency of emergency rescue under public health emergencies.Taking public health emergencies as the research background,this paper takes the dynamic change of the demand for emergency supplies in the process of rescue with the epidemic trend,the lag in obtaining the demand information,the insufficient initial supply,and the limitation of distribution capacity as the research objects,and researches the following aspects.First of all,based on the law of the spread of infectious diseases,according to the number of residents in the affected areas,the number of infected people,the number of cured people,the number of deaths and other information based on the improved SEIR infectious disease model to predict the demand for emergency relief supplies in the affected areas,providing a basis for the distribution of supplies.In order to ensure the accuracy of prediction,the prediction results of the improved SEIR model in different environments are compared and analyzed,and the necessity of adjusting the parameters of the prediction model is illustrated.The prediction parameter adjustment model is established,and the model parameters are adjusted according to the real-time data every cycle.Secondly,in order to improve the fairness of the material distribution process,the urgency of the demand for emergency supplies was evaluated at each demand point,providing reference conditions for the distribution of emergency supplies.Considering that the urgency of the demand for emergency supplies and the demand and supply capacity fluctuate with the trend of the epidemic.Therefore,a one-time distribution model of local supply in the initial stage of emergency supplies distribution and a three-level dynamic supply model of multi-port supply points,multi-distribution centers,multi-demand points and multi-cycle in the middle and early stage were established respectively.The model considers various supply channels including government allocation,material donation,suppliers and manufacturers,which makes the research more meaningful for practical rescue.Thirdly,in order to improve the distribution efficiency of emergency relief materials under the background of public health emergencies,and reduce casualties and economic losses.In order to minimize the loss caused by unmet needs of emergency supplies and minimize the total distance of emergency supplies distribution,this paper studied the distribution of emergency supplies at different stages after the outbreak of major public health events,and built dynamic distribution optimization models for emergency supplies distribution at different stages.In particular,the shortage of human resources and logistics equipment in warehousing,sorting,testing,distribution and warehousing of emergency supplies provided through channels such as allocation,donation and supplementary production has been taken into account in the early stage of public health emergencies.Therefore,the restriction of human resources and logistics equipment is considered as the constraint condition of emergency logistics material distribution.Finally,in the context of the novel Coronavirus outbreak in early 2020,the model is validated by a case of emergency material distribution.The results show that this method can effectively solve the problem of emergency material allocation under the dynamic demand of major public health events,and provides a new idea for emergency material allocation under the emergency public health events.