Analysis Of Factors Affecting Direct Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Japanese Household

Global warming poses a serious challenge to sustainable development in all areas of society.With the dual characteristics of carbon source and carbon sink,agriculture has increasingly become the focus of exploring the path of low-carbon development.The Yellow River Basin is a traditional farming area and an important ecological barrier in China.Long-term extensive input of agricultural materials and unreasonable agricultural industrial structure have aggravated the pollution of non-point agricultural sources and the deterioration of ecological environment,thus bringing the low carbon development of agriculture in the basin to a bottleneck period.With the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin rising as a major national development strategy,accelerating agricultural emission reduction and sink increase and realizing low-carbon agricultural transformation are of great significance for promoting high-quality agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin.This paper attempts to break away from the single research perspective of agricultural carbon emissions or carbon sinks by integrating the two into one analytical framework,defines the difference between agricultural carbon sinks and agricultural carbon emissions as agricultural carbon effect,and construct a measurement system from five aspects of agricultural land utilization,rice planting,livestock and poultry breeding,straw treatment and crop carbon sequestration,to scientifically measure agricultural carbon emissions,carbon sinks and carbon effects in nine provinces(regions)of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020,and analyze their spatiotemporal evolution.The extended STIRPAT model is used to explore the influencing factors of agricultural carbon effect in the Yellow River Basin.On this basis,the agricultural carbon effect in the Yellow River Basin from 2021 to 2035 under conservative development scenario,baseline development scenario and green development scenario is reasonably predicted by combining scenario analysis method.Finally,corresponding emission reduction countermeasures are proposed according to the above analysis results.The main conclusions are as follows:1)From the perspective of temporal evolution,from 2000 to 2020,the total agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin has shown four stages of "rapid rise-continuous decline-slow rise-fluctuating decline",with an average annual growth of 0.69%.Livestock and poultry farming is the main agricultural carbon source in the Yellow River Basin,accounting for 41.91% annually.The total agricultural carbon sink has shown two stages of "fluctuating decline-stable rise",with an annual growth rate of 2.19%.Food crops play a major role in agricultural carbon sink in the Yellow River Basin,accounting for 80.72% annually.The agricultural carbon effect in the Yellow River Basin shows a fluctuating increase from 2000 to 2020,with an average annual growth rate of 3.26%,maintaining roughly the same growth trend as the agricultural carbon sink.The growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin as a whole is lower than that of the carbon sink,indicating significant progress in agricultural carbon emission reduction and carbon sink increase.2)From the perspective of spatial differentiation,the agricultural carbon effect of the nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin show different degrees of increase and all of them present the characteristics of net carbon sink.Based on the difference of the absolute amount of agricultural carbon effect in the nine provinces(regions)of the Yellow River Basin,it is divided into three levels of "low carbon effect region","medium carbon effect region" and "high carbon effect region".The high carbon effect region in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River has increased from zero,Sichuan has changed from a medium carbon effect region to a high carbon effect region,Inner Mongolia has gradually transitioned from a low carbon effect region to a high carbon effect region.Qinghai,Gansu,Ningxia,Shaanxi and Shanxi have always been the low carbon effect region,while Henan and Shandong in the lower reaches of the Yellow River have always been the high carbon effect region.The spatial distribution of agricultural carbon effect in the Yellow River Basin is not balanced and produces a certain agglomeration phenomenon.The overall distribution of agricultural carbon effect is high in the east and low in the west,high in the downstream and low in the upstream.3)The extended STIRPAT model is used to analyze the influencing factors of agricultural carbon effect in the Yellow River Basin from the four dimensions of population,economy,technology and structure.It is found that the level of urbanization,the level of agricultural economic development,the living standard of rural residents,the level of agricultural mechanization and the structure of agricultural industry have positive effects on the agricultural carbon effect in the Yellow River Basin.The degree of positive influence is in the order of agricultural industrial structure,urbanization level,agricultural mechanization level,agricultural economic development level,rural residents’ living standard.There is a significant negative effect of rural population size on the carbon effect of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin.4)Based on the existing law of social and economic development and related policy planning in the Yellow River Basin,three different development scenarios,namely conservative development scenario,baseline development scenario and green development scenario,are simulated for the Yellow River Basin from 2021 to 2035,and the agricultural carbon effect in the Yellow River Basin from 2021 to 2035 is predicted to be between 183.05 million tons and 306.11 million tons.The average annual growth rate of agricultural carbon effect in the Yellow River Basin from 2021 to2035 under the conservative development scenario,baseline development scenario and green development scenario is 1.95%,2.82% and 3.62%,respectively.The agricultural carbon effect in the Yellow River Basin would play an increasingly significant role in promoting the realization of the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals",and the potential of the Yellow River Basin to reduce carbon emissions and increase sinks in the future is enormous.