Research On Finished Product Inventory Optimization Of HW Petroleum Company Based On Demand Forecast Technology

With the continuous development of social economy,"specialized and special new small giant" enterprises have emerged in the subdivided fields of various industries,which undoubtedly intensifies the competition of various enterprises in the social economy.The COVID-19 epidemic has brought a huge impact on various industries in China,resulting in weak overall demand in all industries.If enterprises want to survive in the fierce competition,they must pay attention to cost control,and for manufacturing enterprises,one of the most important means of cost control is inventory optimization High inventory occupies a large amount of operating funds,which seriously restricts the operating efficiency of enterprises.HW company is a typical industrial fast moving consumer goods enterprise.Due to its weak brand influence in China and low supply chain operation efficiency,it is in a weak position in the industry competition.Due to the low accuracy of demand forecast.HW company relies on a large inventory of finished products to meet the demand fluctuations of orders.As a result,a large amount of capital of the company is occupied by the inventory of finished products,which seriously affects the operating efficiency.Facing the competitive business environment,the problem of high inventory of finished products needs to be optimized and solved.This thesis first analyzes the industry background and the current situation of the enterprise,and then puts forward the theoretical significance and practical significance of this thesis,and further elaborates the research ideas combined with the research content and research methods.Through literature research,the relevant theories of supply chain management and inventory management and research status domestic and abroad are reviewed.This thesis analyzes the current status of finished product inventory management of HW Company,and uses data analysis method to identify the reasons for the high finished product inventory of HW Company.Based on the theory of inventory management and combined with ABC classification and demand forecasting technology,this thesis puts forward the key point of optimizing finished product inventory management,that is to improve the demand forecasting accuracy of class A products.Base on the reality data of HW company,moving average method,exponential smoothing method and grey prediction model are respectively adopted to construct the training model for class A products.According to the error evaluation and comparison of the three prediction models,it is concluded that the grey prediction model is the most suitable.Then,the grey prediction model is tested to verify the applicability and accuracy of the model.According to the reality data of HW company,accurate demand forecasting can effectively reduce HW company’s unnecessary inventory of high-value finished products and release more operating funds.In order to ensure the smooth implementation of the finished product inventory optimization scheme,the thesis puts forward the corresponding safeguard measures from the aspects of information technology means improvement,organizational structure optimization,performance appraisal mechanism optimization and organizational training.The research results of this thesis can provide certain reference for industrial fast consumables enterprises in the optimization of finished product inventory.