Global climate change is a common ecological problem facing the world today,which is related to the survival and development of mankind.Reducing the emission of greenhouse gases,mainly carbon dioxide,protecting the natural ecological environment and coping with climate change have become the direction of global joint efforts.In response to the problem of carbon emissions,China set a goal in 2020 to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.As soon as the strategic goal was put forward,a series of policy documents and improvement measures were issued from the central and local governments.As an important area for population activities and economic development,the Yellow River Basin shoulders the heavy responsibility of energy conservation and emission reduction while ensuring economic development.Therefore,it is of great importance to clarify the current situation of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin,identify key influencing factors,and scientifically evaluate the carbon emission reduction capacity of the nine provinces and regions for the realization of the carbon emission reduction target in the Yellow River Basin.Firstly,this article analyzes the current situation of carbon emissions in the nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin.From 2005 to 2019,the overall carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin showed an increasing trend,accounting for about 35%of the national carbon emissions.Among them,Shandong Province has the highest carbon emissions,followed by Inner Mongolia,Henan,and Shanxi,and Qinghai Province has the lowest carbon emissions.Secondly,this article uses the LMDI decomposition method to decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin into energy carbon emission intensity effect,energy consumption intensity effect,economic development effect,and population size effect.The results show that the energy consumption intensity effect and the economic development effect are key factors that inhibit and promote carbon emissions changes in the Yellow River Basin,respectively.The population size effect and energy carbon emission intensity effect have a driving effect on carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin,but the driving effect is relatively small.Using the Tapio decoupling model,explore the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin.The results show that there are three states between economic growth and carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin:weak decoupling,strong decoupling,and growth connection.The main state is weak decoupling,indicating that the economic growth rate is higher than the carbon emission growth rate.Finally,this article constructs an evaluation index system for carbon emission reduction capacity in the Yellow River Basin,which includes five primary indicators:economic emission reduction driving force,industrial and technological development capacity,social development capacity,energy consumption and carbon emission capacity,carbon sink absorption capacity,and 24 secondary indicators related to primary indicators.The improved CRITIC method was used to assign weights to indicators,and the GRA-TOPSIS evaluation model was used to evaluate the carbon emission reduction capabilities of nine provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin.The results show that Sichuan,Shandong,and Shaanxi have higher carbon emission reduction capabilities,while Henan,Qinghai,and Inner Mongolia are at a moderate level,while Gansu,Shanxi,and Ningxia have lower carbon emission reduction capabilities.This study provides a certain theoretical basis and support for the formulation of carbon reduction strategies in various provinces and regions,and has certain significance for promoting carbon reduction and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. |