Research On Scenario Prediction And Potential Reduction Of Carbon Emission From Tourism Industry In Shandong Province

In recent years,global climate change has become a major environmental issue facing human society,in response to global climate change,in 2020 China clearly put forward the "dual carbon" goal,requiring all walks of life and the whole society to reduce carbon in an orderly manner.Data from the World Tourism Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme show that the tourism sector accounts for 5%-14% of the total human-caused carbon emissions,and is growing at a rate of 2.5% per year.With a large Chinese and the world’s largest domestic tourism market,China’s tourism reception reached 6.151 billion in 2019,about half of the total number of global tourists,and such a large tourism scale also brought a lot of carbon emissions.Therefore,under the background of "dual carbon",the carbon emission problem of China’s tourism industry cannot be ignored,and studying and discussing the carbon emission problem of tourism has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting China’s green and low-carbon development.In this study,Shandong Province was selected as the research object,comprehensively considering demographic,economic,technological and other factors,and based on the current situation of tourism carbon emissions in Shandong Province and various development plans of Shandong Province,a scenario prediction model of tourism carbon emissions in Shandong Province was constructed,and three scenarios of benchmark,energy conservation and low carbon were set to predict and analyze the change trend of tourism carbon emissions and the carbon peak time of Shandong Province and 16 cities from 2022 to 2060.On this basis,the carbon emission reduction potential index of tourism in Shandong Province and 16 cities is calculated,and their emission reduction potential is evaluated,and targeted carbon emission reduction suggestions are put forward.It is found that:(1)From 2022 to 2060,the carbon emissions of tourism in Shandong Province showed an inverted "U" shape trend of first rising and then declining under the three scenarios.Among them,the low-carbon scenario is the first to achieve carbon peak,and the peak is the lowest,followed by the energy-saving scenario,and the baseline scenario is the latest,with peaks of 76.8342 million tons,98.2869 million tons and 130.8478 million tons in 2037,2042 and2048,respectively.(2)From 2022 to 2060,the carbon emissions of tourism in 16 cities in Shandong Province showed an inverted "U" shape under the three scenarios,among which the low-carbon scenario peaked the earliest and the lowest peak,but the carbon peak time and peak difference between cities were obvious.Under the three scenarios,Jinan,Qingdao,Zibo and Weihai will peak their tourism carbon emissions in 2045,2040 and 2035 respectively.The latest time for Dezhou to achieve carbon peaking is 2055,2050 and 2045,respectively,among which the peak time of Rizhao City and Dezhou City under the benchmark and energy-saving scenarios is the same,and the peak time of tourism in other cities and Shandong Province is similar.(3)From the perspective of fairness and efficiency,from 2022 to 2060,the carbon emission reduction potential of tourism in Shandong Province and 16 cities in Shandong Province and 16 cities will decline under the three scenarios,and the carbon emission reduction potential of tourism under the low-carbon scenario will be the smallest.(4)According to the tourism carbon emission reduction fairness index and efficiency index,the 16 cities in Shandong Province are divided into three types: "high carbon emission reduction potential" cities,"medium carbon emission reduction potential" cities and "small carbon emission reduction potential" cities.Under the baseline scenario and energy-saving scenario,from 2022 to 2060,there are 5 cities with "high carbon emission reduction potential",6 cities with "medium carbon emission reduction potential",and 5 cities with "low carbon emission reduction potential",but the distribution of prefectures and cities is different.Among them,the distribution of cities in the benchmark scenario is relatively scattered,while the distribution under the energy-saving scenario is more concentrated,mainly around the average value of the carbon emission fairness index and efficiency index,indicating that the carbon emission reduction policy under the energy-saving scenario has achieved certain results.Under the low-carbon scenario,7 of the 16 cities in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2060 belong to cities with "low carbon emission reduction potential",5 cities belong to cities with "medium carbon emission reduction potential",and only 4 prefectures and cities are still cities with "high carbon emission reduction potential",and the energy conservation and emission reduction policies of tourism have good effects.Based on the above conclusions,the following carbon emission reduction suggestions are proposed:(1)Create a good environment for low-carbon tourism development.(2)Cultivate a low-carbon tourism market.(3)Optimize the energy structure.(4)Accelerate low-carbon technology innovation and research and development.(5)Enhance the carbon sink capacity of the tourism industry.(6)Carbon emission reduction in tourism according to local conditions.