| How to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is a common problem faced by the world.The Chinese government further increased its independent contribution to the Paris Agreement at the United Nations Climate Ambition Summit in December 2020,emphasizing the goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030.The power industry,as the industry with the highest carbon emissions in China,has become a key area of concern for emission reduction.China’s coal resource endowment determines the power generation structure of the power industry mainly based on thermal power.Compared with new energy generation,thermal power still has significant advantages such as stable supply,peak valley regulation,centralized heating services,and low power generation costs.It is difficult to completely replace it in the short term,which will inevitably increase the difficulty of achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China.After sorting out the relevant research results in the academic community,it was found that there is still a lack of research on the efficiency of emission reduction policies in the power industry,key influencing factors,simulation of future carbon emission peaks,and regional emission reduction potential.This has led to the inability of relevant departments to accurately formulate emission reduction measures,and the formulation of future policies is also limited.In view of this,this thesis constructs a regional emission reduction potential evaluation mechanism based on the necessity analysis of industry carbon peak assessment;A statistical analysis was conducted on the energy consumption and carbon emissions status of China’s power industry.An improved SBM-Malmquist model was used to quantitatively characterize the environmental-output efficiency of China’s provincial power industry,and the heterogeneity of provincial environmental-output efficiency was dynamically analyzed;Using the GDIM model to decompose and analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions changes in the power industry across the country and six major regions;We have constructed a total carbon emissions model for the power industry,and combined static scenarios and dynamic Monte Carlo models to depict the future peak situation of the power industry;In addition,carbon quota allocation and regional emission reduction potential evaluation are based on the principles of fairness and efficiency,providing a theoretical basis for relevant departments to formulate relevant plans.Specifically:Firstly,based on the concepts related to carbon peaking,combined with sustainable development theory and low-carbon development theory,the economic basis of regional emission reduction potential was discussed.The necessity of carbon peaking analysis in the power industry was explored from three demand levels: reasonable transformation,policy planning,and fulfilling commitments,and a regional carbon emission reduction potential evaluation mechanism was constructed.Secondly,the basic data of energy consumption and carbon emissions of China’s power industry in 2003-2021 were measured,clarifying the current status of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the industry.The improved SBMMalmquist model was used to calculate the environmental-output efficiency and corresponding technological progress index,technological efficiency change index,and Malmquist index changes in China’s power industry.The results show that the electricity industry in most regions did not reach an effective level during 2003-2021,mainly due to low environmental efficiency;In addition,the overall trend of environmental output efficiency shows a certain potential for emission reduction.Therefore,it is feasible to improve the industry’s emission reduction effect by reducing carbon emissions.Thirdly,the impact mechanism of carbon emissions changes in the power industry was analyzed at the national and regional levels.The contribution of influencing factors was calculated using the GDIM ten factor model,and the results showed that economic level,power generation energy consumption,and electricity output were the main factors promoting the growth of carbon emissions in the power industry,both at the national and six regional levels.In addition,population also played a weak promoting role;The factors that suppress the growth of carbon emissions in the power industry include carbon intensity,energy emission factors,carbon emission factors for power generation,per capita GDP,and energy intensity.Fourthly,the future trend of carbon emissions in the power industry was dynamically simulated.Firstly,based on Kaya identity,two models for calculating the total carbon emissions of the power industry from the perspectives of economic growth and electricity production were constructed.Combining static scenarios and Monte Carlo models,the development trajectory of the total carbon emissions was dynamically simulated under three development scenarios: baseline,sustainable,and low-carbon.The results show that the power industry is unable to achieve carbon peak under the benchmark development scenario.In the sustainable development scenario,emissions from the power industry can peak by 2030,while in the lowcarbon development scenario,carbon emissions from the power industry can peak by2025.Fifthly,a carbon quota allocation model based on the principles of fairness and efficiency was constructed,with the carbon peak target value under the sustainable development scenario as the total carbon quota.The CRITIC method was used for initial allocation of electricity carbon quotas,and the ZSG-DEA model was used to optimize the allocation of initial quotas to achieve effectiveness.Subsequently,a regional carbon reduction potential model was constructed based on the principles of fairness and efficiency,with optimizing carbon quotas as the ideal carbon emissions.The carbon reduction potential of the power industry in six major regions and 30 provinces were divided into four categories: “high efficiency and high fairness”,“high efficiency and unfairness”,“low efficiency and unfairness”,and “low efficiency and high fairness”.Sixth,based on the above theoretical and empirical research results,we propose the following policy recommendations: it is necessary to balance the relationship between industrial development and emission reduction from the aspects of industrial layout positioning,management and supervision work,and legal and regulatory formulation;It is necessary to establish higher energy-saving and emission reduction standards from the aspects of power supply structure and scientific research investment;The potential for regional emission reduction is not only influenced by its own conditions,but also by the different preferences for fairness and efficiency of decision-makers.Therefore,the formulation of regional emission reduction plans should fully consider the aforementioned differences.The results of this study enrich the research on the current status and trends of carbon emissions in the power industry,and also expand the regional carbon reduction potential evaluation system,which helps the government formulate practical and effective emission reduction measures and development plans,so that the power industry can steadily achieve carbon emissions peak in a scientific and efficient pace. |
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