Sulfur Dioxide Emission Reduction Potential Study Of Industrial Structure Adjustment In China

Sulfur dioxide?SO₂? has caused a great impact on the environment after it was discharged to the atmosphere. Acid or sulfate aerosols will be formed in which a part of them will finally form the acid rain, and a part of them will form the ammonium sulfate combined with NH3, which is the main part of PM2.5. From 2001 to 2012, SO₂ emissions from industry have reached to 20 m illion 418 thousand tons in 2006. Although SO₂ emissions have decreased after 2006, but SO₂ emissions from industry has increased by 32.21% c ompared to 2001, As cut ting SO₂ emission is still an important work for China's air pollution control.Based on the Chinese industry environm ental data and economic data f rom 2001 to 2012, using LMDI?LMDI decomposition? technology to build four factors, including industry scale, industry structure, energy i ntensity decomposition model and governance effect, this paper aims to reveal the impacts of the four factors on Chinese industrial SO₂ emissions. Then, based on the theory of scenario anal ysis, this paper predicts th e reduction pot ential of industrial sectors' SO₂ emission in China. The results show that:?1? From the decomposition point of vie w, industry expansion is the main r eason that causes the co ntinuing increase of SO₂ emissions from 2001 to 2012. The data s how that SO₂ emissions has i ncreased by 71.2%, reaching 38 million 534 thousand and 300 t. While the governance effect and energy intensity for SO₂ emission reduction has an obvi ous effect, reducing 26.6% a nd 17.80% respectively, which are still the main re ducing reasons for SO₂ emission in the short term. The adjustment of industry structure has experienced a transition to the SO₂ emission from a negative growth to a positive growth, which indicates the great amount of emission reduction and reduction potential. In the different periods, the situations will be also different. During the period from 2001 to 2004, industry structure and industry scale has caused a n increase of SO₂ emissions; during the periods from 2001 to 2004, 2005 to 2008 and 2009 to2012, the governance effect and energy intensity has promoted the reduction of SO₂ emission. As the results, the emissions showed a significantly negative growth trend, and the industry scale showed a positive growth trend. During the period from 2009 to 2012, the effect of SO₂ emission's reduction in industry str ucture is the best, while other two periods had the poor reduction e ffects.?2? From the view of em ission forecasting, in three different scenarios, BAU scenario and l ow policy scenario had the best reduction effects, while the frustrated sulfur scen ario had t he worst e ffect. Under the lo w policy scenario, the reduction pot ential of emission for the future adjustment of the industrial structure c an reach-1350.23 million tons, the re duction potential of energy intensity can reach-1500.14 mi llion tons, the reduction pote ntial of governance effect can reach-119.78 mill ion tons. Under the BAU sce nario, the reduction potential of emission for the future adjustment of the industrial structure can reach-990.47 Million tons, the reduction potential of energy intensity can reach-1377.92 million tons, the reduction potential of governance effect can reach-242.37 million tons. In order to achieve the goal of Chinese SO₂ emissions in the future, the industry should continue to i mprove energy efficiency, relying on advance d technology and i mproving the energy structure in a short term; accelerating structural adjustment and upgra ding within industry sectors should also be carried out in a long term.