Socio-Economic And Environmental Impact Assessment Of Yalong River Clean Energy Base Construction Based On CGE Model

There are abundant wind power and photovoltaic resources on both sides of the Yalong River basin,so Yalong River Company proposed to build a large clean energy base in Yalong River.The large amount of funds are invested in the construction of clean energy bases in the short term will drive local investment in Sichuan Province,and direct investment will have an indirect impact on other industries through the industrial chain.In order to comprehensively evaluate such complex impacts,this paper attempts to use an improved computable general equilibrium(CGE)model to analyze the economic effects of investment in the construction of a large clean energy base on the Yalong River.Firstly,based on the economic situation of Sichuan Province and the carbon reduction characteristics of clean energy bases,a provincial-level E-C-CGE model is established.The EC-CGE model consists of a production activity module,a commodity trade module,an income expenditure module,a departmental investment module,an environmental module,and an equilibrium closure module.After the establishment of the model,the complex effects of investment and operation in the construction of Yalong River large-scale clean energy base are studied by setting investment and sector capital stock as the impact variables of the model.Secondly,based on previous research and the investment direction of energy base construction,42 departments in the input-output model were integrated into 7 production departments,and a macro and decomposed social accounting matrix table(SAM table)containing 7 departments and 11 accounts was prepared,forming the basic data of the E-C-CGE model.Next,by using GAMS software,each module in the E-C-CGE model is transformed into a programming language to calculate the base year results and generate a base year SAM table.By comparing and verifying with the SAM table established above,the results show that the model has passed the base year consistency test and price homogeneity test,indicating that the E-CCGE model established in this article has good applicability and feasibility.Finally,based on the timing of wind and solar development in clean energy bases,three different development scenarios are proposed to explore the socio-economic and environmental impacts of different development plans on Sichuan Province;At the same time,taking the consumption of new energy as the capital stock of the power sector,explore the impact of the operation of clean energy bases on Sichuan Total output,GDP,labor demand,income of the three economic entities,as well as the inflow and outflow volume and import and export volume of each industry are selected to explore the chain reaction of the national economy caused by the increase in investment in clean energy base construction,and comprehensively analyze the socioeconomic and environmental impact of the clean energy base investment plan.At the same time,Carbon emission trading benefits and pollutant emissions are used as environmental impact indicators to measure investment in clean energy base construction.The simulation results indicate that the investment and operation of clean energy base construction have a significant positive impact on the development of the national economy.During the investment and construction period,the output level of the transportation post and telecommunications industry is most affected,and the trade activities of the construction industry and transportation post and telecommunications industry are most severely impacted.By comparing and analyzing the driving effects of three development scenarios on the economy,it can be concluded that the development method of scenario 3 is more advantageous.During the operation period of the energy base,the output growth rate of the power industry is the highest,at 1.825%.The investment and operation of clean energy base construction have led to an increase in the emissions of "three wastes" pollutants.For investment in clean energy bases,the cumulative carbon reduction benefits of Scenario 3 are close to 11.4 billion yuan,with the best return effect.For the operation of clean energy bases,based on new energy consumption data,the annual carbon reduction benefit during the operation period of the clean energy base is approximately 2.7 billion yuan.