Carbon Emission Path Optimization In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been an important economic growth pole in China,and its coal-based energy structure and energy-intensive industrial structure make the region’s carbon dioxide emissions relatively large,accounting for more than10% of the China’s total carbon emissions.Under the "dual carbon" goal,it will be extremely important to explore the optimization of carbon emission paths in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.This paper constructs a top-down SD model and a bottom-up LEAP model,and explores the optimization path of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region through scenario analysis.The results show that:(1)under the baseline scenario,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region cannot reach its carbon peak before 2030.In the SD model,the peak time of carbon emissions is 2033.the peak value is 128.273 million tons.In the LEAP model,the peak time of carbon emissions is 2032,with a peak of 125.62 million tons.The growth rate of total energy consumption shows a trend of first fast and then slow,reaching more than 6 million tons of standard coal in 2040.The energy structure gradually turns to clean,the proportion of coal and oil consumption shows a declining trend,and the proportion of natural gas and primary electricity and other energy consumption continues to rise.(2)There are differences in emission reduction and energy saving effects of single policy optimization scenarios.Among them,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can achieve carbon peak before 2030 in the scenario of energy structure optimization,but it is difficult to achieve carbon peak before 2030 in the scenario of industrial structure optimization and technological progress(terminal energy efficiency improvement scenario).Industrial structure optimization scenario and technological progress scenario(terminal energy efficiency improvement scenario compared with the baseline scenario,the total energy consumption decreased.In the energy structure optimization scenario,there is little difference between the total energy consumption and the baseline scenario.In terms of carbon emission intensity and energy consumption intensity,in any single scenario of the two models,energy consumption intensity and carbon emission intensity decreased compared with the baseline scenario,and the energy consumption intensity decreased most significantly in the scenario of industrial structure optimization.In the energy structure optimization scenario,the carbon emission intensity decreases more than that in the baseline scenario.(3)Under the policy combination scenario,the carbon dioxide emission trend of the four combination scenarios is first rising and then decreasing.The policy combination scenario integrated with the optimization of energy structure can achieve the carbon peak goal before 2030,and the comprehensive policy scenario combination has the most significant effect from the time of carbon peak and the peak of carbon peak.Compared with the baseline scenario,the single scenario and other pairwise policy scenarios,the comprehensive composition scenario of the three single policy optimization scenarios has the largest energy saving amount,achieving the best energy saving effect in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The combination scenario integrated into the energy structure optimization scenario can realize the optimization of energy structure,increase the proportion of natural gas,primary power and other energy sources,and correspondingly reduce the proportion of coal and oil.Therefore,the adjustment and optimization of energy structure,industrial structure,and promotion of technological progress(terminal energy efficiency improvement)can achieve the optimal effect of energy conservation and emission reduction,and achieve the goal of peaking carbon in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region faster and better.