| After more than 20 years of development,network literature has formed the iterative mode of "creation routine" and "breakthrough routine".More and more high-quality IP of network literature has been adapted into movies,cartoons,games,etc.,and copyright development has gradually become the main source of income for network literature authors.The linkage of the network literature and the film industry to social cultural and artistic production scale effect,build the "China model" industrialization of network literature,make up the "one-stop" cultural creative production,created the"long tail" of the economy to promote the vigorous development of the network literature and the film industry.However,there are few relevant research results on the evaluation of the copyright value of network literature adaptation.The research on how to reasonably estimate the copyright value of network literature adaptation can effectively promote the progress and perfection of the network literature film and television market.Based on the life cycle theory,value chain theory,grey correlation degree theory and multiple linear regression theory,this paper determines the evaluation method of the copyright of network literature adaptation,and analyzes the applicability of cost method,market method and income method.Finally,the license fee saving method in the income method is adopted to evaluate the value of the copyright of network literature adaptation.In addition,due to the imperfect development of Chinese film and television derivatives market,its income is only a small proportion to the film box office,so the focus of the study on the source of box office revenue of film and television copyright.In this paper,104 films adapted from non-animated online literature released in China from 2011 to 2021 were selected as samples to determine the main index system affecting the film box office revenue,and the film box office revenue was taken as the explained variable.The author’s influence,the score of the original novel,the director’s influence,the actor’s influence,the film theme,the film distribution and production company,the film score and the release schedule were taken as explanatory variables,and the regression analysis was conducted by stata,and then the film box office revenue prediction model was obtained.The results show that the influence of the author,the score of the original novel,the influence of the director,the influence of the actor,the distribution and production company,the score of the film and the release schedule are significantly positively correlated with the box office income of the film,while the influence of the film theme is not significant.Subsequently,the accuracy of the fifteen online literature adaptation of the film inspection film box office revenue prediction model of 15 online literature released from 2019 to 2021 was randomly selected,and the results showed that the prediction model was rational.At the end of the paper,the film "Secret Love·Orange Hainan" adapted from the novel of the same name in August Changan was selected as an analysis case.Compared with the actual value,the error was 4.56%compared with the actual value.The inspection showed that the evaluation of the box office and copyright of the movie was more accurate.When selecting the factors that affect the box office income,the thesis incorporates the factors before the adaptation into the predictive model of the box office income,and puts forward targeted suggestions for the problems existing in film and television copyright assessment.The rationality and accuracy of the assessment have made their own attempts in order to provide reference for film appraisers and provide a reference for film producers. |