Impacts Of Social Economic Development And Institutional Change On CO₂ Emissions

Climate change aroused a great deal of concern from governments and international academic because of including controversial political decisions, daunting technological change, and far-reaching global consequences. Climate change is an environmental issue, but in essence, it is a development issue. Meanwhile, carbon dioxide emission is the main factor of the global warming. However, China's emission now remains at the stage of survival models that demanding prompt solution in reducing carbon emissions growth and its coordination with social and economic development. Thus, it is of much importance to study the impact of China's social and economic development on carbon emissions from the perspective of both theory and practice. The present paper constructed a so-called"population-affluence-technology- urbanization-institution (PATUI)"impact factor model of carbon dioxide emission based on the following five factors: population, affluence, technology, urbanization, and institutional change, which would be beneficial to developing reasonable measures to curb carbon dioxide emissions.The main viewpoints of this study are shown as follows:(1) Exploring the impact of the population, economy, and technology on carbon dioxide emission. Based on the traditional"IPAT"equation, we explored the relationship of the above factors and emissions using three empirical models (i.e., simple linear equation, quadratic equation, and cubic equation model). It is suggested that cubic equation model is the better represents the above relationship than other two models. Moreover, in light of an unbalanced regional development in current China, we also researched the differences of the relationships between east region and mid-west region, analyzed the causes of the differences, and proposed more targeted suggestions.(2) Exploring the overall impact of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions. This work studied the influence of urbanization on emissions by using the Three-Stage Least Square (3SLS) method. The results showed that urbanization is generally benefical to reducing carbon dioxide emissions in our country. However, this impact varied from region to region. The promotion of urbanization process in Midwest would help to reduce emissions due to the situation of the local consumption pattern, economic structure, infrastructure, and regional development policy. On the other hand, the effect of urbanization on emissions is not statistically significant for entire sample period in eastern region because of the characteristics of the local economic structure and infrastructure; however, the urbanization in eastern region for the recent years would intensify the carbon dioxide emissions ascribed to consumption structure promotion.(3) Exploring the impact of city expansion and transformation on carbon dioxide emissions. Based on the different nature of urban development, the present study adopted the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method to construct the city expansion (CE) index and city transformation (CT) index, which can represent the recent urbanization situation in China. Further, a VECM-based analysis of Granger causality test was used to explore the long- and short-term relationships among CE, CT, and Carbon dioxide emissions. It is suggested that both CE and CT caused a short-term carbon dioxide emission, while they are not the reason of the long-term carbon dioxide emission.(4) Exploring the impact of institutional change on carbon dioxide emissions by taking the"Western Development in China"as an example. This study explored the impacts of Western Development on industrial carbon emissions from the following perspectives: scale effect, composition effect, and technique effect. The results suggested that scale effect and composition effect are two main ways, in which Western Development affects industrial carbon emissions.The study has made some innovation in the following areas:(1) Constructing the"PATUI"model. Based on the traditional"IPAT"model and the conditions of China in accelerating urbanization and changing the political system and economic system, the present work constructed the"PATUI"model, which would focus on the impact of various social and economic factors on carbon dioxide emissions.(2) Exploring the overall impact of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions by using the 3SLS method. The previous studies mainly focused on the causal relation, the role of city in total carbon dioxide emissions as well as the impact of household energy consumption; in contrast, the present study explored Exploring the overall impact of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions by means of the 3SLS method, which can efficaciously overcome the endogenous problem.(3) Constructing the CE index and CT index by using the PCA in order to describe the situation of the recent urbanization situation in China. The present study respectively selected the four factors and used the PCA method to construct the CE index and CT index, which can represent the recent urbanization situation in recent years in China.(4) Exploring the long- and short-term relationships among CE, CT, and Carbon dioxide emissions using the VECM-based Granger causality test, and estimating the mechanism of short-term relationship using the generalized impulse response function (GIRF). In general, the previous studies sparingly explored the relationships among the above three factors. The present study assessed their long- and short-term relationships, and further explored the mechanism of the short-term relationship based on the GIRF.(5) Taking the"Western Development in China"as an example and exploring the impact of institutional change on carbon dioxide emissions. Generally, this work opened a new issue, and tried to find out the environmental influence of institutional change by taking the"Western Development in China"as a classic example. This will be useful for both theoretical research and social practice.