A Study On The Impact Of Population Change On Carbon Emission In Shanghai

Greenhouse gases produced by human activity influence on global change is becoming more and more significant, Global climate warming has gained the attention of the whole society, Low carbon city construction has become a new marker of social development. To further reveal the influencing factors of carbon emissions and explore the development of low carbon city, this paper takes Shanghai population changes and carbon emissions as the research object, researching and analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions in Shanghai situation and the influencing factors of carbon. Firstly, under the theory of low carbon city, population migration theory, sustainable development theory,IPAT model theory and related concepts, clearing the research object of this paper and explaining the transmission mechanism how the population changes affect the carbon; Secondly, Guiding by the IPCC, calculating Shanghai’s overall carbon emissions in 1985-1985, then based on the statistical analysis method, with the actual data of Shanghai population changes and carbon, analysis of the Shanghai population characteristics and carbon emissions and learning a preliminary understanding of the two correlation problem; Thirdly, based on the STIRPAT model, analysis of the data of the population changes affect and the carbon emissions, considering industrial structure and government regulation factors control variables, inspecting and estimating the Shanghai population changes factors and carbon emissions, than illustrate the impact of Shanghai population variable factors on carbon emissions. The results prove that:(1)Positive correlation between carbon emissions and the overall size of population, the greater the population size the greater the carbon emissions;(2)An ageing population density and the average family size have a negative correlation to the carbon emissions, higher proportion of population aging will reduce carbon emissions to a certain extent;(3)More family population will improve the efficiency of energy use to produce scale effect and reduce carbon emissions effectively. According to the empirical results, In this paper, gaving related Suggestions in the following two aspects for reducing carbon development in Shanghai:the reasonable distribution of Shanghai under the background of low carbon and the development of low carbon city economy.