Research On Agent Management, Forecast And Decision In Complex Water Environment And Resource System

The tradition management theory on complex water environment and resource system understands the integration management model incorrectly, uses digital technology in bits and pieces, and neglects the fuzziness both in the thought of human being and objective phenomenon. This paper studies a new management model.In Chapter 1 the author discusses the current state and problems in the research and application about complex water environment and resource system, and develops a agent management model. Based on the integration management and digital technology, the agent model uses mainly Fuzzy Sets theory, neural network and genetic algorithms.Chapter'2 points out the necessary to use integration management method to manage the complex water environment and resource system. The method includes 4 kinds of meaning. The author points out the negotiate system of relation control is a key method of integration management.Chapter 3 combines the management model of complex water environment and resource system to the digital technology. The agent, Internet, data warehouse, GIS and workshop technology of digital technology times can be applied to new management model. The author researches the non-IT view of digital management system that is neglected often in the digital management system design.Chapter 4 discusses the sustainable development assessment method of complex water environment and resource system. The author thinks that we can use the relative membership degree of Fuzzy Sets to describe the sustainable development situation. The paper gives the definition and the calculation method of sustainable development degree. The author studies the sustainable development degree of Helongjiang province.Chapter 5 studies the method of fuzzy nonlinear agent combining forecast method. The new combining forecast method is used to real forecast river flow of Xinjiang Yili River and the freeze-up time and break-up time in the Neimenggu section of the Yellow River.In Chapter 6 the author studies the agent decision method of complex water environment and resource system.