The Environmental Management And Planning Theory And Methodolodgy Based On The Research About The Complexity Of The Resource And Environmental System

This paper mainly focused on three aspects about system model, system optimization and system assessment. Based on complex theory, such as uncertain theory and chaotic theory, combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, some urban resource-environment programming theory and method had been studied, which was helpful to offer some information for sustainable development of urban resource-environment system.Firstly, this paper presented some research evolutions about city complexity, complexity of ecological system and resource-environment system. And some non-linear and uncertain characteristics were presented in urban resource-environment system. Then the feasibility was also discussed to apply chaos theory (attractors) and dissipative structure theory (entropy) to urban system. Then, according to chaos theory, phase space reconstruction and embedding theory, time series of dissolved oxygen of Lian River were analyzed. Meanwhile, attractors' dimension and maximum Lyapunov exponent were also calculated, which showed that dissolved oxygen time series of river basin had chaotic property. It appeared the seemingly irregular movement, but intrinsic orderliness of system (characterized by maximal Lyapunov exponent) demonstrated that short term forecasting of water quality was feasible. And a chaos phase space mode linear regression method was applied to forecast river water quality, which were instructive to the environmental management in Lishui River. Moreover, integrated with the Logistic equation of chaos theory including the characteristics of ergodicity, randomness, regularity and the sensitivity of chaos, this paper tried to use the method of chaotic optimization to solve the gray non-linear programming problem. Calculation results showed that chaotic optimization method was superior to conventional methods and genetic arithmetics.As water quality system had non-linear, uncertain and stochastic properties, this inevitably affected the model construction of environmental system, which included parameters estimation of the model and systemic risk analyses. So this paper also presented the basic steps for parameters estimation of two-dimensional water quality model of complex rivers based on finite element method and real-coded genetic algorithm, which had superiorities to conventional resolutions and experiential formulas and was suitable to apply to two-dimensional complex rivers. Then based onShastry non-linear water quality model, this paper introduced the concept of stochastic force and establishes stochastic differential equation, which was solved by applying numerical calculation algorithm. Then calculated probability distribution function elementarily described the influences on water environmental risk. Last the relations between the time and possibility of exceeding the concentration limit value could be obtained, which indicated that it was necessary to apply non-linear and uncertain characteristics to risk management of water environment.Research on the complexity of urban resource-environment system is fundamental at home and abroad. The work made in this paper is only an attempt to apply complex theory to urban resource-environment system. So it is necessary to need more and more research.