Macro-risk Analyses Of Cognition, Assessment And Prevention Countermeasures For Urban Major Fire During The Socioeconomic Transition Period In China

It is urgent necessary for realizing modernization to take cognizance of the risk of urban major fire, to assess it, and to guard against it during the socioeconomic transition period in China. But, there are some defects that need to make better in the service of fire prevention, such as how to distinguish scientifically and macroscopically the risk system of urban major fire during the transition period, how to assess it systematically and normally, how to prevent it actively and effectively according to a certain strategic principle, and so forth. All of these problems have been short of attention and researches in the academic explorations and the service explorations since long ago. Therefore, it is inevitably and imperative to study the risk of urban major fire during the socioeconomic transition period in our country.The summary of this study has indicated that, it is one kind of spontaneous evolution to structurize the cognition of urban fire risk in some foreign countries, oppositely, it is a kind of aware processes to structurize it in the domestic performance. In spite of such progress, it is time that the people start to the steps for the macro-risk cognition of urban major fire. At the same time, in the view of the theoretical evolution of the study on risk assessment of urban fire, the summary has also indicated that, the research route of socioeconomic character is an emerging one; it has begun to be taken seriously in the scholarly researches and service practices day by day; Because, it is more related profoundly to this macroscopic and the eternal subject on the relationship between the public (fire prevention) security and the modernization in cities, than the microscopic research routes are . However, it is still requisite for the synthetic assessment of urban fire risk to strengthen the explorations of the studies with systematization. Moreover, the summary has also indicated that, while making progress toward the process of socioeconomic sustainable development, the works of the domestic and foreign cities, such as the works for guarding fire risk, are adapting diligently to the stern environments and challenges from the risk society under the conditions of the modernization and globalization. Therefore, it is inevitably for the plans of fire prevention to be geared to the needs of the innovation with strategy. In conclusion, the summary has also indicated that, as a whole, the domestic and foreign works about urban fire-risk researches have still remained to breakthrough the microscopic resources-disposition frame, therefore need to change explicitly over to the macroscopic resources-using goal frame according to the transition periodcharacteristics and the sustainable development principle, resorted to the research direction of society policies in order to establish structural and institutional social essence security.Thereout, the paper has established and adopted the structuralism route in order to research a macroscopic, systematical and strategic theory on the urban fire-risk. It has also proposed and elaborated "the theory of urban fire-risk system". The paper has pointed that urban fire-risk research should relate to socioeconomic modernization transition firstly. Then, the urban fire-risk system could be understood as the urban differentiation system, which is composed of three sub-systems, such as the causes of disasters, the receiving objects, and the environment gestating disasters. It is an aggregate of different possibilities, such as the danger with the sequence of time, the macro-frailty with the dimension of space, and the macro-vulnerability with the dimension of organization. Finally, it is necessary to explore the theory on the strategy planning of security against fire for guarding urban fire-risk effectively.Therefore, the analytic object of this paper is the macro-risk of urban major fire during the socioeconomic transition period in big or media-sized cities in our country. The paper embarks upon the basic contradiction between the socioeconomic construction and the security against fire, launches the systematical macroexaminations and the strategic analyses on three organic connective key questions, such as distinguishing the risk of urban major fire macroscopically, assessing it systematically, and preventing it with strategies. It has explored with emphasis on the macro-risk cognition and the integrative assessment of urban major fire. Then, it has correspondingly proposed the prevention countermeasures for the risk of urban major fire during the transition period. Thus, it has realized initially the systematical research on the theories and the methods with regard to the macro-risk cognition, the integrative assessment, and the prevention countermeasures for the risk of urban major fire, which could have been suitable for the transition period in big or media-sized cities in our country.In the aspect of the macroscopic cognition for urban major fire-risk, this paper has proposed that, fire-risk research needs to unify modernization, such as urbanization, industrialization, and so on. Confronting this, it has classified the fire-riskmacroscopic factor into the transferring of population, the industrial transition, the reforming of economic system, the energy transformation, and the fire inertia. Taking a case of the city H, the paper has set up the models of regression function for quantitative analyses, which can be also used to rank the macro-risk factors. This has established the epistemology basis for the explorations and the researches of the theory on the risk of urban major fire.In the aspect of the integrative assessment for the risk of urban major fire, the paper has constructed the macroscopic fire-risk system, which, as it said, is composed of the macro-danger with the sequence of time, the macro-frailty with the dimension of space, and the macro-vulnerability with the dimension of organization. Based on the systematical analyses and macroscopic cognition on the basic structure, the essential factor, and the function of the fire-risk system, this article has proposed the index system of fire-risk assessment, the synthetic assessment model, and the algorithm of the model. It has made one tentative assessment using a DEA model by taking a case of the city H. The effect of this assessment was appraised to be good, which affirmed by the experts when the project checked and accepted. So, this has established the methodology basis for explorations and researches of the theory on the risk of urban major fire.In the aspect of the guard strategies for urban major fire-risk, this article has discussed the relationships between modernization and the security against fire for the first tine, which is based on fire-risk cognition and assessment using the case analyses and quantitative analyses. Accordingly, it has also proposed the prevention countermeasures against fire-danger, frailty and vulnerability. For example, the city may optimize the security level of population structure. Confronting this, the paper has adopted the security-optimization model which can be elementary used to fire-prevention planning. This has established the practical basis for explorations and researches of the theory on the risk of urban major fire.