The Research Of Urban Bus Fire Accidents Risk Assessment Method

In recent years,bus fire accidents occur frequently.The malignant consequence of bus fire accidents caused adverse impacts to society,so that the attention of the scholars was attracted gradually.Bus as an important part of urban public transportation,its carrying capacity and safe environment greatly affect travel requirements and also life and property safetyofcitizens.Taking effective measures to prevent bus fire accidents is the way to provide citizens with a comfortable,convenient and safe riding environment.In order to make a further understand of bus fire accidents'rule,bus fire accidents risk assessment is necessary.This article will build a bus fire accidents case database,selecting typical bus fire accidents occurred from 2005 to2014.During the selection of the case,information will be extracted,like statistical nature of the accidents,occurrence time,casualties,and the causes of the accidentsetc.Using fishbone diagram can make causes of the bus fire clear and tidy,and with the help of fishbone diagram,a three-level evaluation index system of the bus fire accidents will set up.The word frequency of accidentsfactors can evaluate the probability,and then index weight can be calculated.Establishing the mathematical model of the bus fire accidents by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,andthentherisk assessment ofa real bus fire accident casewillmaketo prove this method.The conclusions are as follows:?1?In all types of bus fire accidents,the spontaneous combustion accident is the most likely to occur,followed by arson,explosion and mistake;Bus fire accident usually happens inthe second and third quarter;The casualties which are caused by arson are much higher than spontaneous combustion accident;Factors of injuries mainly include carrying prohibited dangerous articlesby passengers,means of escape blocked,toxic gases,slow speed of emergency response.The elderly infirm sick disabled and pregnant groups are the main objects of casualties?2?With the help of fishbone diagram,this article established a three-level evaluation index system,which contains 2 first-level indexes,7 secondary indexes,27 tertiary indexes.?3?Based on the statistical probability of three-level index factors'appearance,the weight can begot.Usethe case of Urumqi,Xinjiangfire accident which happened in August 5^th,2013 as an example,calculating the three-level evaluation index respectively with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The result shows that the risk level is in dangerous standard,which is coincide with the fact,so that the feasibility of the evaluation method is confirmed.?4?Accordingto the accident causation theory,this article gives the bus accident emergency response strategies and suggestions to prevent fire.