Study On The Spread Rules And Invasive Risk Management Of Alien Invasive Plants

In recent years, the invasion of alien species has become a global concern the threat of ecological resources and the environment and security issues. May lead to the invasion of alien species within the scope of the global species diversity and loss of genetic diversity, invasion of alien species has become second only to habitat damage to the environment and lead to reduced biological diversity of the second largest killer. On the one-country, invasive alien species would not only a country's agriculture, animal husbandry, environment, the national economy caused huge economic losses, it could also pose a threat to human health and even affected the social stability and development.China's national economy is at a stage of rapid development, and how to achieve faster and better development, the ecological environment is a very important issue, especially China's rural ecological environment is fragile, alien species in the rural areas easily lead to the invasion, the income of the farmers affected. Therefore, solving the problem of alien species invasion is related to farmers, rural areas and agriculture one of the important tasks in relation to the harmonious development of man and nature an important measure is to achieve social, economic and environmentally sustainable development of the important issues.When alien invasive species arrived in a new environment, it spread very quickly, and eventually it is difficult to control. The spread of alien invasive species through the general characteristics of several stages and has been generally accepted that human activities and the species is inextricably linked to the invasion has also been recognized, but the proliferation of its inherent? Whether the model can be used to predict the spread of the law? Diffusion behavior and the relationship between human activities ? The proliferation of the invasion of how much risk? How to assess? Can form an effective management method? This series of question is the starting point of this study.This study was the spread rules of invasive plant simulation and empirical study of human activities and the relationship between the spread rules of exotic plants regression analysis, the first use of Logistic model of Jiangsu province Spartina alterniflora coastal spread rules were simulated, and then were used model and orderly counting variable model due to human activities and the spread of alien invasive plants Empirical Analysis of the relationship with the spread rules and the spread of human activities on that role in what areas need to focus on the management, that is the key point of control and management system at the same time, use of expert play on the basis of the analytic hierarchy process, invasion of exotic plants set up risk evaluation index system, and Spartina alterniflora and Solidago canadensis assessment for example, through the invasion of risk assessment simulation to determine the size of the invasion risk, early warning to circumvent risk that the early warning system. The combination of these two methods, that is, from the point of management for invasive species management can play a complementary role in the future introduction of species, international trade, inspection and quarantine, monitoring the track has a very good reference, conduct comprehensive management of invasive alien species is instructive. Come to the following conclusions:1. Spartina alterniflora beach in the coastal Jiangsu spread process is divided into incremental growth period (1982-1997), the fast growing period (1997-2001), the ease by period (after 2001). 1997 metres of Jiangsu Province plant grass began its spread outbreak, a turning point in the first, and the growth rate is very rapid, with the average growth rate reaching 41.07 %, the highest growth rate reached 43 %, and its growth peak of 1999. Since the beginning of 2001 a second inflection point, and then start slow growth rate, the average growth rate of less than 5 %, 2002-2011-2003 annual growth rate of 3.6% for 2003 - 2004 growth rate 2.08%, and then further After the growth rate is getting smaller and smaller.2. Human activities external to the spread of invasive plants has obvious impact, traffic density, crop acreage is a strong correlation between the nature reserve area, population density has strong negative correlation. Although economic development and imported goods is the spread of alien invasive plants one of the reasons but not the major factor. Invasive plants as the main reason or scientific research, improved varieties such as artificially introduced intentionally caused and the introduction caused by improper management.3. Spartina alterniflora, and the invasion of Solidago canadensis risk higher levels for the senior. The risk of exotic plant invasion is divided into different levels, warning also had different levels, it can be used in the management of early warning management system, the different levels of risk management at different levels. Papers light of the above analysis and conclusions, the invasion of exotic plant control and management of the key points early warning system and management system, from different angles to the management of alien invasive plants, the final paper presents the invasion of exotic plant management ideas and policy recommendations.The invasion of alien species in the management of a more systematic research methods and analytical framework, not only to foreign plant invasion guiding role in the management of its research and analysis methods for invasive animals or micro-organisms management also can be used as reference.