Coastal Ecosystem Security And Empirical Research Of Jiaozhou Bay

Located at the shore of Yellow Sea, Jiaozhou Bay is a semi-enclosed bay at the southern shore of Shandong Peninsula. Being the treasure-house of Qingdao, it has beautiful environment and rich resources, and the industries there, like shipping, shipbuilding, marine fishery, salt and chemical industries, coast industry and tourism, are highly developed, so it plays a significant part in the economic development of Qingdao city. As the rapid coastal economic development of Jiaozhou Bay, the continuous increasing of population pressure and the more resource and space people grab from the bay, contradictions, such as resource shortage and environmental deterioration are becoming increasingly outstanding, which seriously restrict sustainable development.Security usually refers to a status that the subject is not threatened. Ecological security means the ecological environment, which a country or a society need in order to survive and develop, is not or little destroyed and threatened. As the population growth and development of social economy, the environmental and ecological disasters caused by environmental degradation and ecological destruction are more and more threatening regional development, national security and social progress. Ecological security has become a big issue demanding prompt solution for both theory and practice.This paper makes a preliminary analysis about the ecological environment of the coastal zone of Jiaozhou Bay, using its survey and related statistical data. Based on three subsystems of pressure, status and response, the paper constructs a ecological security evaluation system of Jiaozhou Bay's coastal zone, which has 16 aspects and 43 indexs, including resource pressure, population pressure, environmental pressure, economic pressure, ecological disaster, bay status, environmental quality status, ecological status, ecological system's own function and service function, pressure regulating condition, state repairing condition and adjustment of economic polocies, and it carry out a quantitative prediction study of related index system; this paper does sensitivity analysis about every index, and research on the regulation and management of coastal zone's ecological security based on the results of sensitivity analysis; the paper brings forward the regulation measures of the ecological system management of Jiaozhou Bay's coastal zone, discuss the docking method of ecological security research and comprehensive management of coastal zone, and advance decision support for government's comprehensive management of coastal zones.The research content and results are as following:1.Based on the system analysis and factor discrimination of the Jiaozhou Bay coastl zone's ecosystem situation, the paper constructs a ecological security evaluation system including 43 indexs of three subsystems of pressure, status and response, and evaluate the ecological security states of Jiaozhou Bay's coastal zone in 1998, 2001, 2004 and 2007, using comprehensive index method and fuzzy evaluation method.The results show that :(1) From 1998 to 2007, Jiaozhou Bay coastal zone's ecological security index's general trend is declining first and then rising but is always in the area of early warning. The fuzzy evaluation shows that the indexs of four years all have a highest membership degree with early warning state out of every evaluation grades; the general ecological security state is in the area of early warning. (2) On the subsystem level, from 1998, the pressure subsystem has a deterioration trend; the status subsystem has a trend of rising after declining; the response subsystem has a positive trend.This paper constructs a ecological security prediction system of Jiaozhou Bay's coastal zone, including marine environmental numerical model, EwE ecological model and grey prediction model, and achieve quantitative prediction on coastal zone's ecological security; the paper also makes a prospect analysis of the ecological security state of Jiaozhou Bay's coastal zone in 2020.The results show that: (1) In 2010, the ecological index will be 0.5923 which still refers to early warning. The predictive value of pressure subsystem is in the state of'quite dangerous'. But the decline trend gets slow. The status subsystem's security index is picking up, while the response subsystem has the most evident rise to the state of'safe'. (2) In 2020, the ecological security index of coastal zone is 0.6017. The security index of pressure subsystem still becomes lower than 2010, and the response subsystem has a little rise, while the status subsystem has a positive trend. Generally, the ecological security state of 2020 is better than that of 2010.2.According to the thought of managing and regulating at the level of subsystem, the paper adjusts the three subsystems and corresponding indexs, and carry out a sensitivity analysis.The results show that: When changing the indexs of the pressure subsystem, the sensitivity is 1.94, the biggest one out of four conditions; this means the pressure subsystem has a quite big contribution rate to the total system's ecological security, and if regulating it, the effect will be quite evident. When changing the indexs of the total system, sensitivity analysis on every index has been carried out . It shows that environment pollution and resource utilization are the two main sensitive factors which has quite evident effect on the state of the total ecological security system.3.Based on the sensitivity analysis on indexs, the paper respectively regulates the main impact factors which has a high rank such as environmental pollution and resource utilization, and bring forward corresponding maintaining, managing and perfecting measures. Develop economic society and environment in harmony under the guide of scientific development view; reinforce legislation and execution, extablish a supervision and management system to maintain ecological security, and set up market operation mechanism in order to maintain ecological security.